Lula’s commanding 95% implied probability for first place in Sergipe reflects the state’s consistent alignment with the Workers’ Party coalition in northeastern Brazil, where historical first-round margins have exceeded 30 points. National polling averages from August 2026 place Lula at 39–41% ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro at 33–37%, with smaller shares for Ronaldo Caiado, Renan Santos, and others, and Sergipe voters have amplified this regional edge. Lula’s incumbency, focus on social programs, and coalition with Geraldo Alckmin reinforce trader confidence ahead of the October 4 first round. A late national surge by right-leaning candidates or unexpected shifts among independents and lower-income blocs could narrow the gap, though such movements would need to overcome entrenched local patterns to alter the current consensus.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLula 95%
Clariana Barao 2.8%
Flavio Bolsonaro 1.6%
Edmilson Costa <1%
$13,499 Vol.
$13,499 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
95%
Clariana Barao
3%
Flavio Bolsonaro
2%
Edmilson Costa
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
<1%
Hertz Dias
<1%
Pablo Marçal
<1%
Renan Santos
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
<1%
Samara
<1%
Zema
<1%
Lula 95%
Clariana Barao 2.8%
Flavio Bolsonaro 1.6%
Edmilson Costa <1%
$13,499 Vol.
$13,499 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
$7,327 Vol.
95%
Clariana Barao
$959 Vol.
3%
Flavio Bolsonaro
$541 Vol.
2%
Edmilson Costa
$486 Vol.
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
$470 Vol.
<1%
Hertz Dias
$492 Vol.
<1%
Pablo Marçal
$486 Vol.
<1%
Renan Santos
$470 Vol.
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$498 Vol.
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
$478 Vol.
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
$492 Vol.
<1%
Samara
$469 Vol.
<1%
Zema
$331 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Sergipe, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Sergipe.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Sergipe. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula’s commanding 95% implied probability for first place in Sergipe reflects the state’s consistent alignment with the Workers’ Party coalition in northeastern Brazil, where historical first-round margins have exceeded 30 points. National polling averages from August 2026 place Lula at 39–41% ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro at 33–37%, with smaller shares for Ronaldo Caiado, Renan Santos, and others, and Sergipe voters have amplified this regional edge. Lula’s incumbency, focus on social programs, and coalition with Geraldo Alckmin reinforce trader confidence ahead of the October 4 first round. A late national surge by right-leaning candidates or unexpected shifts among independents and lower-income blocs could narrow the gap, though such movements would need to overcome entrenched local patterns to alter the current consensus.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Sergipe, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Sergipe.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Sergipe. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Sergipe.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Sergipe. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:36 AM ET
Volume
$13,499End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:36 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Sergipe, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Sergipe.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Sergipe. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula’s commanding 95% implied probability for first place in Sergipe reflects the state’s consistent alignment with the Workers’ Party coalition in northeastern Brazil, where historical first-round margins have exceeded 30 points. National polling averages from August 2026 place Lula at 39–41% ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro at 33–37%, with smaller shares for Ronaldo Caiado, Renan Santos, and others, and Sergipe voters have amplified this regional edge. Lula’s incumbency, focus on social programs, and coalition with Geraldo Alckmin reinforce trader confidence ahead of the October 4 first round. A late national surge by right-leaning candidates or unexpected shifts among independents and lower-income blocs could narrow the gap, though such movements would need to overcome entrenched local patterns to alter the current consensus.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Sergipe, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Sergipe.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Sergipe. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Sergipe.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Sergipe. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$13,499End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:36 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Lula’s commanding 95% implied probability for first place in Sergipe reflects the state’s consistent alignment with the Workers’ Party coalition in northeastern Brazil, where historical first-round margins have exceeded 30 points. National polling averages from August 2026 place Lula at 39–41% ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro at 33–37%, with smaller shares for Ronaldo Caiado, Renan Santos, and others, and Sergipe voters have amplified this regional edge. Lula’s incumbency, focus on social programs, and coalition with Geraldo Alckmin reinforce trader confidence ahead of the October 4 first round. A late national surge by right-leaning candidates or unexpected shifts among independents and lower-income blocs could narrow the gap, though such movements would need to overcome entrenched local patterns to alter the current consensus.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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