Lula da Silva maintains a commanding 95% implied probability of finishing first in Sergipe during the October 4 first round, driven by the state's consistent status as a Northeast stronghold for the Workers' Party incumbent. Historical voting patterns show Lula securing margins above 30 points in the region across prior cycles, reinforced by his current national first-round polling lead of roughly 39% against fragmented opposition. Traders price in this structural advantage alongside incumbency benefits and limited recent erosion in Lula's regional coalition. Scenarios that could alter the outcome include unexpected statewide polling declines below 45%, major late-campaign developments affecting Northeast turnout, or an unusually strong regional surge by right-wing challengers, though no such shifts appear in available data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLula 95%
Clariana Barao 2.8%
Flavio Bolsonaro 1.6%
Edmilson Costa <1%
$13,499 Vol.
$13,499 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
95%
Clariana Barao
3%
Flavio Bolsonaro
2%
Edmilson Costa
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
<1%
Hertz Dias
<1%
Pablo Marçal
<1%
Renan Santos
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
<1%
Samara
<1%
Zema
<1%
Lula 95%
Clariana Barao 2.8%
Flavio Bolsonaro 1.6%
Edmilson Costa <1%
$13,499 Vol.
$13,499 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
$7,327 Vol.
95%
Clariana Barao
$959 Vol.
3%
Flavio Bolsonaro
$541 Vol.
2%
Edmilson Costa
$486 Vol.
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
$470 Vol.
<1%
Hertz Dias
$492 Vol.
<1%
Pablo Marçal
$486 Vol.
<1%
Renan Santos
$470 Vol.
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$498 Vol.
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
$478 Vol.
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
$492 Vol.
<1%
Samara
$469 Vol.
<1%
Zema
$331 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Sergipe, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Sergipe.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Sergipe. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula da Silva maintains a commanding 95% implied probability of finishing first in Sergipe during the October 4 first round, driven by the state's consistent status as a Northeast stronghold for the Workers' Party incumbent. Historical voting patterns show Lula securing margins above 30 points in the region across prior cycles, reinforced by his current national first-round polling lead of roughly 39% against fragmented opposition. Traders price in this structural advantage alongside incumbency benefits and limited recent erosion in Lula's regional coalition. Scenarios that could alter the outcome include unexpected statewide polling declines below 45%, major late-campaign developments affecting Northeast turnout, or an unusually strong regional surge by right-wing challengers, though no such shifts appear in available data.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Sergipe, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Sergipe.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Sergipe. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Sergipe.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Sergipe. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:36 AM ET
Volume
$13,499End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:36 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Sergipe, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Sergipe.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Sergipe. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula da Silva maintains a commanding 95% implied probability of finishing first in Sergipe during the October 4 first round, driven by the state's consistent status as a Northeast stronghold for the Workers' Party incumbent. Historical voting patterns show Lula securing margins above 30 points in the region across prior cycles, reinforced by his current national first-round polling lead of roughly 39% against fragmented opposition. Traders price in this structural advantage alongside incumbency benefits and limited recent erosion in Lula's regional coalition. Scenarios that could alter the outcome include unexpected statewide polling declines below 45%, major late-campaign developments affecting Northeast turnout, or an unusually strong regional surge by right-wing challengers, though no such shifts appear in available data.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Sergipe, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Sergipe.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Sergipe. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Sergipe.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Sergipe. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$13,499End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:36 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Lula da Silva maintains a commanding 95% implied probability of finishing first in Sergipe during the October 4 first round, driven by the state's consistent status as a Northeast stronghold for the Workers' Party incumbent. Historical voting patterns show Lula securing margins above 30 points in the region across prior cycles, reinforced by his current national first-round polling lead of roughly 39% against fragmented opposition. Traders price in this structural advantage alongside incumbency benefits and limited recent erosion in Lula's regional coalition. Scenarios that could alter the outcome include unexpected statewide polling declines below 45%, major late-campaign developments affecting Northeast turnout, or an unusually strong regional surge by right-wing challengers, though no such shifts appear in available data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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