Official forecasts from the National Weather Service and multiple models project a daytime high near 105°F for Austin on August 24 under persistent sunny skies, light southerly winds, and minimal cloud cover that maximizes solar heating. This aligns with the ongoing late-summer heat wave, where recent days have already reached 104°F amid high pressure and dry conditions well above the historical late-August average of ~96°F. Trader consensus, reflected in the 57.5% implied probability for 104-105°F, incorporates these model runs and the low chance of any cooling factors like afternoon convection, though slight forecast revisions could still shift the exact peak measured at official stations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Austin on August 24?
Highest temperature in Austin on August 24?
104-105°F 57%
102-103°F 29%
106-107°F 12%
100-101°F 3%
NEW
$12,676 Vol.
NEW
$12,676 Vol.
Aug 24, 2026
95°F or below
<1%
96-97°F
<1%
98-99°F
<1%
100-101°F
3%
102-103°F
29%
104-105°F
57%
106-107°F
12%
108-109°F
1%
110-111°F
1%
112-113°F
<1%
114°F or higher
<1%
104-105°F 57%
102-103°F 29%
106-107°F 12%
100-101°F 3%
NEW
$12,676 Vol.
NEW
$12,676 Vol.
Aug 24, 2026
95°F or below
$65 Vol.
<1%
96-97°F
$163 Vol.
<1%
98-99°F
$322 Vol.
<1%
100-101°F
$1,017 Vol.
3%
102-103°F
$3,800 Vol.
29%
104-105°F
$4,901 Vol.
57%
106-107°F
$1,288 Vol.
12%
108-109°F
$768 Vol.
1%
110-111°F
$704 Vol.
1%
112-113°F
$222 Vol.
<1%
114°F or higher
$190 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official forecasts from the National Weather Service and multiple models project a daytime high near 105°F for Austin on August 24 under persistent sunny skies, light southerly winds, and minimal cloud cover that maximizes solar heating. This aligns with the ongoing late-summer heat wave, where recent days have already reached 104°F amid high pressure and dry conditions well above the historical late-August average of ~96°F. Trader consensus, reflected in the 57.5% implied probability for 104-105°F, incorporates these model runs and the low chance of any cooling factors like afternoon convection, though slight forecast revisions could still shift the exact peak measured at official stations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 22, 2026, 8:56 PM ET
Volume
$12,676End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 8:56 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official forecasts from the National Weather Service and multiple models project a daytime high near 105°F for Austin on August 24 under persistent sunny skies, light southerly winds, and minimal cloud cover that maximizes solar heating. This aligns with the ongoing late-summer heat wave, where recent days have already reached 104°F amid high pressure and dry conditions well above the historical late-August average of ~96°F. Trader consensus, reflected in the 57.5% implied probability for 104-105°F, incorporates these model runs and the low chance of any cooling factors like afternoon convection, though slight forecast revisions could still shift the exact peak measured at official stations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$12,676End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 8:56 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...Official forecasts from the National Weather Service and multiple models project a daytime high near 105°F for Austin on August 24 under persistent sunny skies, light southerly winds, and minimal cloud cover that maximizes solar heating. This aligns with the ongoing late-summer heat wave, where recent days have already reached 104°F amid high pressure and dry conditions well above the historical late-August average of ~96°F. Trader consensus, reflected in the 57.5% implied probability for 104-105°F, incorporates these model runs and the low chance of any cooling factors like afternoon convection, though slight forecast revisions could still shift the exact peak measured at official stations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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