Recent model consensus from AEMET, ECMWF, and GFS indicates a Madrid maximum near 27–28°C on August 24 under southwesterly flow behind an Atlantic front. This pattern increases cloud cover, reduces solar insolation, and introduces scattered showers with modest boundary-layer moisture, capping daytime heating below late-August climatological averages. Trader-implied probabilities align closely, with 27°C and 28°C outcomes dominating at over 88% combined, reflecting stable conditions and limited upside risk for higher thresholds. Updated forecasts emphasize the narrow resolution bands and historical variability, with any clearing trends or timing shifts in precipitation as key variables that could refine the final observed high.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Madrid on August 24?
Highest temperature in Madrid on August 24?
27°C 55%
28°C 40%
29°C 6%
30°C 2.8%
$96,148 Vol.
$96,148 Vol.
Aug 24, 2026
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
1%
27°C
55%
28°C
40%
29°C
6%
30°C
3%
31°C
1%
32°C
<1%
33°C or higher
<1%
27°C 55%
28°C 40%
29°C 6%
30°C 2.8%
$96,148 Vol.
$96,148 Vol.
Aug 24, 2026
23°C or below
$5,748 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$11,926 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$7,984 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$22,813 Vol.
1%
27°C
$9,204 Vol.
55%
28°C
$8,662 Vol.
40%
29°C
$7,538 Vol.
6%
30°C
$4,466 Vol.
3%
31°C
$3,863 Vol.
1%
32°C
$4,527 Vol.
<1%
33°C or higher
$9,417 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from AEMET, ECMWF, and GFS indicates a Madrid maximum near 27–28°C on August 24 under southwesterly flow behind an Atlantic front. This pattern increases cloud cover, reduces solar insolation, and introduces scattered showers with modest boundary-layer moisture, capping daytime heating below late-August climatological averages. Trader-implied probabilities align closely, with 27°C and 28°C outcomes dominating at over 88% combined, reflecting stable conditions and limited upside risk for higher thresholds. Updated forecasts emphasize the narrow resolution bands and historical variability, with any clearing trends or timing shifts in precipitation as key variables that could refine the final observed high.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 22, 2026, 1:56 AM ET
Volume
$96,148End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 1:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from AEMET, ECMWF, and GFS indicates a Madrid maximum near 27–28°C on August 24 under southwesterly flow behind an Atlantic front. This pattern increases cloud cover, reduces solar insolation, and introduces scattered showers with modest boundary-layer moisture, capping daytime heating below late-August climatological averages. Trader-implied probabilities align closely, with 27°C and 28°C outcomes dominating at over 88% combined, reflecting stable conditions and limited upside risk for higher thresholds. Updated forecasts emphasize the narrow resolution bands and historical variability, with any clearing trends or timing shifts in precipitation as key variables that could refine the final observed high.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$96,148End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 1:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent model consensus from AEMET, ECMWF, and GFS indicates a Madrid maximum near 27–28°C on August 24 under southwesterly flow behind an Atlantic front. This pattern increases cloud cover, reduces solar insolation, and introduces scattered showers with modest boundary-layer moisture, capping daytime heating below late-August climatological averages. Trader-implied probabilities align closely, with 27°C and 28°C outcomes dominating at over 88% combined, reflecting stable conditions and limited upside risk for higher thresholds. Updated forecasts emphasize the narrow resolution bands and historical variability, with any clearing trends or timing shifts in precipitation as key variables that could refine the final observed high.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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