Persistent late-summer heat across Wuhan's subtropical monsoon climate, reinforced by active yellow high-temperature warnings from the Wuhan Meteorological Station and model consensus clustering near or above 37°C, underpins the near-certain market-implied odds for a daily maximum of 37°C or higher. Urban heat-island effects, elevated humidity near 60–70 percent, and potential for earlier sky clearance could push afternoon readings higher despite northeasterly winds and scattered showers that might otherwise moderate peaks. Historical August maxima frequently reach this range, adding climatological support. Resolution hinges on official station observations; a stronger-than-expected thunderstorm complex or thicker cloud cover could realistically cap the high below the threshold and shift outcomes. Updated model runs this evening will further refine trader positioning.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Wuhan on August 24?
Highest temperature in Wuhan on August 24?
37°C or higher 99.9%
27°C or below <1%
28°C <1%
29°C <1%
$25,456 Vol.
$25,456 Vol.
Aug 24, 2026
27°C or below
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C
<1%
34°C
<1%
35°C
<1%
36°C
<1%
37°C or higher
100%
37°C or higher 99.9%
27°C or below <1%
28°C <1%
29°C <1%
$25,456 Vol.
$25,456 Vol.
Aug 24, 2026
27°C or below
$99 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$99 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$99 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$685 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$1,123 Vol.
<1%
32°C
$1,726 Vol.
<1%
33°C
$2,548 Vol.
<1%
34°C
$2,496 Vol.
<1%
35°C
$3,211 Vol.
<1%
36°C
$7,430 Vol.
<1%
37°C or higher
$5,940 Vol.
100%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhh
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent late-summer heat across Wuhan's subtropical monsoon climate, reinforced by active yellow high-temperature warnings from the Wuhan Meteorological Station and model consensus clustering near or above 37°C, underpins the near-certain market-implied odds for a daily maximum of 37°C or higher. Urban heat-island effects, elevated humidity near 60–70 percent, and potential for earlier sky clearance could push afternoon readings higher despite northeasterly winds and scattered showers that might otherwise moderate peaks. Historical August maxima frequently reach this range, adding climatological support. Resolution hinges on official station observations; a stronger-than-expected thunderstorm complex or thicker cloud cover could realistically cap the high below the threshold and shift outcomes. Updated model runs this evening will further refine trader positioning.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhh
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhh
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 22, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$25,456End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhhResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhh
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent late-summer heat across Wuhan's subtropical monsoon climate, reinforced by active yellow high-temperature warnings from the Wuhan Meteorological Station and model consensus clustering near or above 37°C, underpins the near-certain market-implied odds for a daily maximum of 37°C or higher. Urban heat-island effects, elevated humidity near 60–70 percent, and potential for earlier sky clearance could push afternoon readings higher despite northeasterly winds and scattered showers that might otherwise moderate peaks. Historical August maxima frequently reach this range, adding climatological support. Resolution hinges on official station observations; a stronger-than-expected thunderstorm complex or thicker cloud cover could realistically cap the high below the threshold and shift outcomes. Updated model runs this evening will further refine trader positioning.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhh
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhh
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$25,456End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhhResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent late-summer heat across Wuhan's subtropical monsoon climate, reinforced by active yellow high-temperature warnings from the Wuhan Meteorological Station and model consensus clustering near or above 37°C, underpins the near-certain market-implied odds for a daily maximum of 37°C or higher. Urban heat-island effects, elevated humidity near 60–70 percent, and potential for earlier sky clearance could push afternoon readings higher despite northeasterly winds and scattered showers that might otherwise moderate peaks. Historical August maxima frequently reach this range, adding climatological support. Resolution hinges on official station observations; a stronger-than-expected thunderstorm complex or thicker cloud cover could realistically cap the high below the threshold and shift outcomes. Updated model runs this evening will further refine trader positioning.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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