Traders assign a 99.9% implied probability to Ankara’s lowest temperature on August 24 reaching 17°C or below because current meteorological models show a cool air mass and clear nighttime skies driving radiative cooling to that threshold or lower. Official forecasts from regional agencies highlight this pattern through surface observations and ensemble guidance, aligning with historical late-August baselines where minimums frequently dip into the mid-teens. The consensus reflects skin-in-the-game assessment of stable high-pressure dominance and limited warm advection. Only an unexpected shift in steering winds or revised station data could alter the outcome, though fresh model updates are unlikely to change the picture before daily resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Ankara on August 24?
Lowest temperature in Ankara on August 24?
17°C or below 99.9%
26°C <1%
18°C <1%
19°C <1%
NEW
NEW
Aug 24, 2026
17°C or below
100%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C or higher
<1%
17°C or below 99.9%
26°C <1%
18°C <1%
19°C <1%
NEW
NEW
Aug 24, 2026
17°C or below
$404 Vol.
100%
18°C
$398 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$443 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$372 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$578 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$571 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$250 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$185 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$222 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$240 Vol.
<1%
27°C or higher
$510 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders assign a 99.9% implied probability to Ankara’s lowest temperature on August 24 reaching 17°C or below because current meteorological models show a cool air mass and clear nighttime skies driving radiative cooling to that threshold or lower. Official forecasts from regional agencies highlight this pattern through surface observations and ensemble guidance, aligning with historical late-August baselines where minimums frequently dip into the mid-teens. The consensus reflects skin-in-the-game assessment of stable high-pressure dominance and limited warm advection. Only an unexpected shift in steering winds or revised station data could alter the outcome, though fresh model updates are unlikely to change the picture before daily resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 22, 2026, 2:29 AM ET
Volume
$4,173End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 2:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltacResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders assign a 99.9% implied probability to Ankara’s lowest temperature on August 24 reaching 17°C or below because current meteorological models show a cool air mass and clear nighttime skies driving radiative cooling to that threshold or lower. Official forecasts from regional agencies highlight this pattern through surface observations and ensemble guidance, aligning with historical late-August baselines where minimums frequently dip into the mid-teens. The consensus reflects skin-in-the-game assessment of stable high-pressure dominance and limited warm advection. Only an unexpected shift in steering winds or revised station data could alter the outcome, though fresh model updates are unlikely to change the picture before daily resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$4,173End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 2:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltacResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders assign a 99.9% implied probability to Ankara’s lowest temperature on August 24 reaching 17°C or below because current meteorological models show a cool air mass and clear nighttime skies driving radiative cooling to that threshold or lower. Official forecasts from regional agencies highlight this pattern through surface observations and ensemble guidance, aligning with historical late-August baselines where minimums frequently dip into the mid-teens. The consensus reflects skin-in-the-game assessment of stable high-pressure dominance and limited warm advection. Only an unexpected shift in steering winds or revised station data could alter the outcome, though fresh model updates are unlikely to change the picture before daily resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions