Recent official forecasts from the Turkish Meteorological Service and global models project an overnight low near 17–18 °C for Ankara on 24 August under clear skies and light northeasterly flow. This consensus supports the leading 45 % market-implied probability on 17 °C or below while leaving room for the closely matched 37.5 % odds on 21 °C if boundary-layer mixing or urban heat-island effects prove stronger than expected. Key differentiating factors include the strength of radiative cooling after sunset, dew-point depression, and any residual daytime heat retention in the city basin versus official station sites. Traders are watching the next model runs and morning observations for confirmation of the minimum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Ankara on August 24?
Lowest temperature in Ankara on August 24?
18°C 34%
22°C 3%
19°C 3%
20°C <1%
NEW
NEW
Aug 24, 2026
17°C or below
48%
18°C
34%
19°C
3%
20°C
1%
21°C
-
22°C
3%
23°C
1%
24°C
1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C or higher
<1%
18°C 34%
22°C 3%
19°C 3%
20°C <1%
NEW
NEW
Aug 24, 2026
17°C or below
$7 Vol.
48%
18°C
$0 Vol.
34%
19°C
$6 Vol.
3%
20°C
$122 Vol.
1%
21°C
$152 Vol.
-
22°C
$150 Vol.
3%
23°C
$150 Vol.
1%
24°C
$75 Vol.
1%
25°C
$105 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$120 Vol.
<1%
27°C or higher
$145 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official forecasts from the Turkish Meteorological Service and global models project an overnight low near 17–18 °C for Ankara on 24 August under clear skies and light northeasterly flow. This consensus supports the leading 45 % market-implied probability on 17 °C or below while leaving room for the closely matched 37.5 % odds on 21 °C if boundary-layer mixing or urban heat-island effects prove stronger than expected. Key differentiating factors include the strength of radiative cooling after sunset, dew-point depression, and any residual daytime heat retention in the city basin versus official station sites. Traders are watching the next model runs and morning observations for confirmation of the minimum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 22, 2026, 2:29 AM ET
Volume
$1,033End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 2:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltacResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official forecasts from the Turkish Meteorological Service and global models project an overnight low near 17–18 °C for Ankara on 24 August under clear skies and light northeasterly flow. This consensus supports the leading 45 % market-implied probability on 17 °C or below while leaving room for the closely matched 37.5 % odds on 21 °C if boundary-layer mixing or urban heat-island effects prove stronger than expected. Key differentiating factors include the strength of radiative cooling after sunset, dew-point depression, and any residual daytime heat retention in the city basin versus official station sites. Traders are watching the next model runs and morning observations for confirmation of the minimum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,033End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 2:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltacResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent official forecasts from the Turkish Meteorological Service and global models project an overnight low near 17–18 °C for Ankara on 24 August under clear skies and light northeasterly flow. This consensus supports the leading 45 % market-implied probability on 17 °C or below while leaving room for the closely matched 37.5 % odds on 21 °C if boundary-layer mixing or urban heat-island effects prove stronger than expected. Key differentiating factors include the strength of radiative cooling after sunset, dew-point depression, and any residual daytime heat retention in the city basin versus official station sites. Traders are watching the next model runs and morning observations for confirmation of the minimum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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