**Forecast models from sources such as the Turkish State Meteorological Service and global ensembles (ECMWF, GFS) converge on an overnight minimum near 16°C for Ankara on August 23, 2026, under clear skies, light northerly flow, and typical late-summer radiative cooling on the Anatolian plateau.** Historical August lows average 17–18°C, and current runs show only modest spread around this value, producing the market’s 97% implied probability for exactly 16°C. The dominant positioning reflects strong model agreement and the absence of disruptive factors like increased cloud cover or cold-air advection that could push the minimum notably lower or higher. A realistic challenge would require a late forecast revision—such as unexpected low-level moisture or a timing shift in the diurnal cycle—that alters the final observed low by 1–2°C before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Ankara on August 23?
Lowest temperature in Ankara on August 23?
16°C 100.0%
15°C or below <1%
17°C <1%
18°C <1%
$3,327 Vol.
$3,327 Vol.
Aug 23, 2026
15°C or below
<1%
16°C
100%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C or higher
<1%
16°C 100.0%
15°C or below <1%
17°C <1%
18°C <1%
$3,327 Vol.
$3,327 Vol.
Aug 23, 2026
15°C or below
$187 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$243 Vol.
100%
17°C
$511 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$594 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$393 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$389 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$254 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$194 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$194 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$184 Vol.
<1%
25°C or higher
$184 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models from sources such as the Turkish State Meteorological Service and global ensembles (ECMWF, GFS) converge on an overnight minimum near 16°C for Ankara on August 23, 2026, under clear skies, light northerly flow, and typical late-summer radiative cooling on the Anatolian plateau.** Historical August lows average 17–18°C, and current runs show only modest spread around this value, producing the market’s 97% implied probability for exactly 16°C.
The dominant positioning reflects strong model agreement and the absence of disruptive factors like increased cloud cover or cold-air advection that could push the minimum notably lower or higher. A realistic challenge would require a late forecast revision—such as unexpected low-level moisture or a timing shift in the diurnal cycle—that alters the final observed low by 1–2°C before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 21, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$3,327End Date
Aug 23, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models from sources such as the Turkish State Meteorological Service and global ensembles (ECMWF, GFS) converge on an overnight minimum near 16°C for Ankara on August 23, 2026, under clear skies, light northerly flow, and typical late-summer radiative cooling on the Anatolian plateau.** Historical August lows average 17–18°C, and current runs show only modest spread around this value, producing the market’s 97% implied probability for exactly 16°C.
The dominant positioning reflects strong model agreement and the absence of disruptive factors like increased cloud cover or cold-air advection that could push the minimum notably lower or higher. A realistic challenge would require a late forecast revision—such as unexpected low-level moisture or a timing shift in the diurnal cycle—that alters the final observed low by 1–2°C before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$3,327End Date
Aug 23, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast models from sources such as the Turkish State Meteorological Service and global ensembles (ECMWF, GFS) converge on an overnight minimum near 16°C for Ankara on August 23, 2026, under clear skies, light northerly flow, and typical late-summer radiative cooling on the Anatolian plateau.** Historical August lows average 17–18°C, and current runs show only modest spread around this value, producing the market’s 97% implied probability for exactly 16°C. The dominant positioning reflects strong model agreement and the absence of disruptive factors like increased cloud cover or cold-air advection that could push the minimum notably lower or higher. A realistic challenge would require a late forecast revision—such as unexpected low-level moisture or a timing shift in the diurnal cycle—that alters the final observed low by 1–2°C before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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