Forecast uncertainty for Ankara's overnight low on August 25 stems from ensemble spread in regional models, with minimum temperatures sensitive to boundary-layer mixing, clear-sky radiative cooling, and any weak frontal passages. Current guidance shows a bimodal pattern between cooler continental air allowing 15 °C or below versus warmer subsidence keeping readings at 25 °C or higher, reflected in the closely matched market-implied odds. Key variables include dew-point depression, wind speeds after sunset, and soil moisture from recent weeks, which modulate how sharply temperatures drop after peak daytime heating. Updated runs from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Turkish State Meteorological Service will refine the outcome ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Ankara on August 25?
Lowest temperature in Ankara on August 25?
25°C or higher 87%
15°C or below 45%
16°C 28%
17°C 28%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
15°C or below
45%
16°C
28%
17°C
28%
18°C
25%
19°C
19%
20°C
20%
21°C
1%
22°C
1%
23°C
1%
24°C
1%
25°C or higher
87%
25°C or higher 87%
15°C or below 45%
16°C 28%
17°C 28%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
15°C or below
$0 Vol.
45%
16°C
$0 Vol.
28%
17°C
$0 Vol.
28%
18°C
$0 Vol.
25%
19°C
$30 Vol.
19%
20°C
$15 Vol.
20%
21°C
$145 Vol.
1%
22°C
$135 Vol.
1%
23°C
$300 Vol.
1%
24°C
$433 Vol.
1%
25°C or higher
$5 Vol.
87%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast uncertainty for Ankara's overnight low on August 25 stems from ensemble spread in regional models, with minimum temperatures sensitive to boundary-layer mixing, clear-sky radiative cooling, and any weak frontal passages. Current guidance shows a bimodal pattern between cooler continental air allowing 15 °C or below versus warmer subsidence keeping readings at 25 °C or higher, reflected in the closely matched market-implied odds. Key variables include dew-point depression, wind speeds after sunset, and soil moisture from recent weeks, which modulate how sharply temperatures drop after peak daytime heating. Updated runs from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Turkish State Meteorological Service will refine the outcome ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 23, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$1,063End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltacResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast uncertainty for Ankara's overnight low on August 25 stems from ensemble spread in regional models, with minimum temperatures sensitive to boundary-layer mixing, clear-sky radiative cooling, and any weak frontal passages. Current guidance shows a bimodal pattern between cooler continental air allowing 15 °C or below versus warmer subsidence keeping readings at 25 °C or higher, reflected in the closely matched market-implied odds. Key variables include dew-point depression, wind speeds after sunset, and soil moisture from recent weeks, which modulate how sharply temperatures drop after peak daytime heating. Updated runs from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Turkish State Meteorological Service will refine the outcome ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,063End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltacResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast uncertainty for Ankara's overnight low on August 25 stems from ensemble spread in regional models, with minimum temperatures sensitive to boundary-layer mixing, clear-sky radiative cooling, and any weak frontal passages. Current guidance shows a bimodal pattern between cooler continental air allowing 15 °C or below versus warmer subsidence keeping readings at 25 °C or higher, reflected in the closely matched market-implied odds. Key variables include dew-point depression, wind speeds after sunset, and soil moisture from recent weeks, which modulate how sharply temperatures drop after peak daytime heating. Updated runs from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Turkish State Meteorological Service will refine the outcome ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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