Current forecast models from sources like ECMWF and GFS indicate overnight lows in Milan on August 26 near 20–22°C under partly cloudy skies, light winds, and high pressure favoring modest radiative cooling. Recent cooling from August 21–23 thunderstorms (with a recorded low of 16.2°C) has given way to stabilization, reducing the chance of deeper drops. Key differentiators among close market outcomes include variable cloud cover affecting longwave radiation loss, urban heat island effects, and slight model spreads in dew point and boundary-layer mixing. Traders price the 14°C-or-below outcome at 31.5% amid lingering uncertainty ahead of final model runs, while mid-20s probabilities reflect consensus on typical late-August minima near 20°C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Milan on August 26?
Lowest temperature in Milan on August 26?
14°C or below 63%
18°C 50%
20°C 49%
16°C 43%
NEW
NEW
Aug 26, 2026
14°C or below
63%
15°C
22%
16°C
43%
17°C
43%
18°C
50%
19°C
27%
20°C
49%
21°C
43%
22°C
43%
23°C
20%
24°C or higher
1%
14°C or below 63%
18°C 50%
20°C 49%
16°C 43%
NEW
NEW
Aug 26, 2026
14°C or below
$0 Vol.
63%
15°C
$130 Vol.
22%
16°C
$0 Vol.
43%
17°C
$0 Vol.
43%
18°C
$0 Vol.
50%
19°C
$0 Vol.
27%
20°C
$0 Vol.
49%
21°C
$0 Vol.
43%
22°C
$0 Vol.
43%
23°C
$0 Vol.
20%
24°C or higher
$0 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast models from sources like ECMWF and GFS indicate overnight lows in Milan on August 26 near 20–22°C under partly cloudy skies, light winds, and high pressure favoring modest radiative cooling. Recent cooling from August 21–23 thunderstorms (with a recorded low of 16.2°C) has given way to stabilization, reducing the chance of deeper drops. Key differentiators among close market outcomes include variable cloud cover affecting longwave radiation loss, urban heat island effects, and slight model spreads in dew point and boundary-layer mixing. Traders price the 14°C-or-below outcome at 31.5% amid lingering uncertainty ahead of final model runs, while mid-20s probabilities reflect consensus on typical late-August minima near 20°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 24, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$130End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limcResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast models from sources like ECMWF and GFS indicate overnight lows in Milan on August 26 near 20–22°C under partly cloudy skies, light winds, and high pressure favoring modest radiative cooling. Recent cooling from August 21–23 thunderstorms (with a recorded low of 16.2°C) has given way to stabilization, reducing the chance of deeper drops. Key differentiators among close market outcomes include variable cloud cover affecting longwave radiation loss, urban heat island effects, and slight model spreads in dew point and boundary-layer mixing. Traders price the 14°C-or-below outcome at 31.5% amid lingering uncertainty ahead of final model runs, while mid-20s probabilities reflect consensus on typical late-August minima near 20°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$130End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limcResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecast models from sources like ECMWF and GFS indicate overnight lows in Milan on August 26 near 20–22°C under partly cloudy skies, light winds, and high pressure favoring modest radiative cooling. Recent cooling from August 21–23 thunderstorms (with a recorded low of 16.2°C) has given way to stabilization, reducing the chance of deeper drops. Key differentiators among close market outcomes include variable cloud cover affecting longwave radiation loss, urban heat island effects, and slight model spreads in dew point and boundary-layer mixing. Traders price the 14°C-or-below outcome at 31.5% amid lingering uncertainty ahead of final model runs, while mid-20s probabilities reflect consensus on typical late-August minima near 20°C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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