Recent ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models show August 25 minimum temperatures in Milan clustered around 19–21°C, driven by a stable high-pressure pattern with light easterly winds, scattered clouds, and possible overnight showers that could enhance radiative cooling. This produces the tight clustering of market-implied odds near 17–20°C. Key differentiating factors include exact timing of any thunderstorm activity, which may lower surface temperatures by 1–2°C through evaporative cooling, versus clearer intervals that would support readings near 20°C. Updated model runs and local observations in the next 48 hours will narrow the range ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Milan on August 25?
Lowest temperature in Milan on August 25?
24°C or higher 30%
18°C 29%
19°C 28%
16°C 26%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
14°C or below
1%
15°C
12%
16°C
26%
17°C
24%
18°C
29%
19°C
28%
20°C
24%
21°C
3%
22°C
7%
23°C
7%
24°C or higher
30%
24°C or higher 30%
18°C 29%
19°C 28%
16°C 26%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
14°C or below
$342 Vol.
1%
15°C
$10 Vol.
12%
16°C
$0 Vol.
26%
17°C
$0 Vol.
24%
18°C
$0 Vol.
29%
19°C
$0 Vol.
28%
20°C
$0 Vol.
24%
21°C
$63 Vol.
3%
22°C
$5 Vol.
7%
23°C
$5 Vol.
7%
24°C or higher
$60 Vol.
30%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models show August 25 minimum temperatures in Milan clustered around 19–21°C, driven by a stable high-pressure pattern with light easterly winds, scattered clouds, and possible overnight showers that could enhance radiative cooling. This produces the tight clustering of market-implied odds near 17–20°C. Key differentiating factors include exact timing of any thunderstorm activity, which may lower surface temperatures by 1–2°C through evaporative cooling, versus clearer intervals that would support readings near 20°C. Updated model runs and local observations in the next 48 hours will narrow the range ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 23, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$486End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limcResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models show August 25 minimum temperatures in Milan clustered around 19–21°C, driven by a stable high-pressure pattern with light easterly winds, scattered clouds, and possible overnight showers that could enhance radiative cooling. This produces the tight clustering of market-implied odds near 17–20°C. Key differentiating factors include exact timing of any thunderstorm activity, which may lower surface temperatures by 1–2°C through evaporative cooling, versus clearer intervals that would support readings near 20°C. Updated model runs and local observations in the next 48 hours will narrow the range ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$486End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limcResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models show August 25 minimum temperatures in Milan clustered around 19–21°C, driven by a stable high-pressure pattern with light easterly winds, scattered clouds, and possible overnight showers that could enhance radiative cooling. This produces the tight clustering of market-implied odds near 17–20°C. Key differentiating factors include exact timing of any thunderstorm activity, which may lower surface temperatures by 1–2°C through evaporative cooling, versus clearer intervals that would support readings near 20°C. Updated model runs and local observations in the next 48 hours will narrow the range ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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