Stable high-pressure conditions over northern Italy, with clear skies and light winds, have enabled strong nocturnal radiative cooling, driving Milan's minimum temperature on August 23 toward the 15°C threshold that now holds 100% market-implied probability. Ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models consistently projected overnight lows near this level under the current synoptic pattern, consistent with August climatology where typical minima range 15–19°C. The consensus reflects verified observational trends and model agreement on boundary-layer cooling rates, with limited upside risk from cloud cover or advection. Only an unexpected shift in steering flow or increased humidity could realistically push the low above 16°C before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Milan on August 23?
Lowest temperature in Milan on August 23?
15°C 100.0%
19°C <1%
20°C <1%
13°C or below <1%
$5,027 Vol.
$5,027 Vol.
Aug 23, 2026
13°C or below
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
100%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C or higher
<1%
15°C 100.0%
19°C <1%
20°C <1%
13°C or below <1%
$5,027 Vol.
$5,027 Vol.
Aug 23, 2026
13°C or below
$342 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$280 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$192 Vol.
100%
16°C
$347 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$524 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$237 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$628 Vol.
1%
20°C
$1,606 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$210 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$423 Vol.
<1%
23°C or higher
$239 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Stable high-pressure conditions over northern Italy, with clear skies and light winds, have enabled strong nocturnal radiative cooling, driving Milan's minimum temperature on August 23 toward the 15°C threshold that now holds 100% market-implied probability. Ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models consistently projected overnight lows near this level under the current synoptic pattern, consistent with August climatology where typical minima range 15–19°C. The consensus reflects verified observational trends and model agreement on boundary-layer cooling rates, with limited upside risk from cloud cover or advection. Only an unexpected shift in steering flow or increased humidity could realistically push the low above 16°C before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 21, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$5,027End Date
Aug 23, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Stable high-pressure conditions over northern Italy, with clear skies and light winds, have enabled strong nocturnal radiative cooling, driving Milan's minimum temperature on August 23 toward the 15°C threshold that now holds 100% market-implied probability. Ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models consistently projected overnight lows near this level under the current synoptic pattern, consistent with August climatology where typical minima range 15–19°C. The consensus reflects verified observational trends and model agreement on boundary-layer cooling rates, with limited upside risk from cloud cover or advection. Only an unexpected shift in steering flow or increased humidity could realistically push the low above 16°C before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$5,027End Date
Aug 23, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Stable high-pressure conditions over northern Italy, with clear skies and light winds, have enabled strong nocturnal radiative cooling, driving Milan's minimum temperature on August 23 toward the 15°C threshold that now holds 100% market-implied probability. Ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models consistently projected overnight lows near this level under the current synoptic pattern, consistent with August climatology where typical minima range 15–19°C. The consensus reflects verified observational trends and model agreement on boundary-layer cooling rates, with limited upside risk from cloud cover or advection. Only an unexpected shift in steering flow or increased humidity could realistically push the low above 16°C before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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