**Current forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and supporting models indicate a minimum temperature of 25–26°C in Tokyo on August 24, driving the overwhelming 99.4% market-implied probability for 26°C.** Persistent southerly flow, high humidity, and limited overnight radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies have maintained elevated nighttime readings consistent with late-summer climatology. Recent observations show overnight lows stabilizing near 25–27°C, with no significant frontal passages or enhanced mixing expected to alter this pattern before resolution. Minor downward revisions remain possible if localized showers or a brief wind shift develop, though ensemble consensus shows low likelihood of dipping to 24°C or below.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Tokyo on August 24?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on August 24?
26°C 99.4%
25°C <1%
24°C <1%
23°C <1%
NEW
NEW
Aug 24, 2026
19°C or below
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
1%
26°C
99%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C or higher
<1%
26°C 99.4%
25°C <1%
24°C <1%
23°C <1%
NEW
NEW
Aug 24, 2026
19°C or below
$210 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$140 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$350 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$721 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$1,512 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$634 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$1,037 Vol.
1%
26°C
$719 Vol.
99%
27°C
$657 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$295 Vol.
<1%
29°C or higher
$140 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and supporting models indicate a minimum temperature of 25–26°C in Tokyo on August 24, driving the overwhelming 99.4% market-implied probability for 26°C.**
Persistent southerly flow, high humidity, and limited overnight radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies have maintained elevated nighttime readings consistent with late-summer climatology. Recent observations show overnight lows stabilizing near 25–27°C, with no significant frontal passages or enhanced mixing expected to alter this pattern before resolution. Minor downward revisions remain possible if localized showers or a brief wind shift develop, though ensemble consensus shows low likelihood of dipping to 24°C or below.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 22, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$6,415End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and supporting models indicate a minimum temperature of 25–26°C in Tokyo on August 24, driving the overwhelming 99.4% market-implied probability for 26°C.**
Persistent southerly flow, high humidity, and limited overnight radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies have maintained elevated nighttime readings consistent with late-summer climatology. Recent observations show overnight lows stabilizing near 25–27°C, with no significant frontal passages or enhanced mixing expected to alter this pattern before resolution. Minor downward revisions remain possible if localized showers or a brief wind shift develop, though ensemble consensus shows low likelihood of dipping to 24°C or below.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$6,415End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Current forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and supporting models indicate a minimum temperature of 25–26°C in Tokyo on August 24, driving the overwhelming 99.4% market-implied probability for 26°C.** Persistent southerly flow, high humidity, and limited overnight radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies have maintained elevated nighttime readings consistent with late-summer climatology. Recent observations show overnight lows stabilizing near 25–27°C, with no significant frontal passages or enhanced mixing expected to alter this pattern before resolution. Minor downward revisions remain possible if localized showers or a brief wind shift develop, though ensemble consensus shows low likelihood of dipping to 24°C or below.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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