The Paraná Senate race for one of two seats on October 4 remains highly competitive, with Deltan Dallagnol holding the highest trader-implied probability for first place amid a crowded field. Recent polls from institutes such as Real Time Big Data and earlier Quaest surveys show statistical ties or narrow leads among Dallagnol, Alexandre Curi, Filipe Barros, Gleisi Hoffmann, and Cristina Graeml, reflecting fragmented voter preferences across parties. Álvaro Dias’s withdrawal in early August removed a prior frontrunner and further compressed the contest. Eligibility questions around Dallagnol’s candidacy and party strategies for vote thresholds continue to influence positioning, while name recognition from prior anti-corruption cases sustains his edge. Upcoming conventions, additional polling, and any late shifts in alliances or turnout patterns among right-leaning and center blocs could widen gaps before election day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedDeltan Dallagnol 44%
Alexandre Curi 36%
Filipe Barros 10%
Cristina Reis Graeml 8%
$11,481 Vol.
$11,481 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Deltan Dallagnol
39%
Alexandre Curi
41%
Filipe Barros
10%
Cristina Reis Graeml
8%
Marcelo Marcelino
3%
Joaquim do MLB
3%
Karen Guerreiro
3%
Gleisi
3%
Dr. Rosinha
2%
Deltan Dallagnol 44%
Alexandre Curi 36%
Filipe Barros 10%
Cristina Reis Graeml 8%
$11,481 Vol.
$11,481 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Deltan Dallagnol
$7,835 Vol.
39%
Alexandre Curi
$1,032 Vol.
41%
Filipe Barros
$1,463 Vol.
10%
Cristina Reis Graeml
$124 Vol.
8%
Marcelo Marcelino
$287 Vol.
3%
Joaquim do MLB
$169 Vol.
3%
Karen Guerreiro
$279 Vol.
3%
Gleisi
$153 Vol.
3%
Dr. Rosinha
$138 Vol.
2%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Paraná is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The Paraná Senate race for one of two seats on October 4 remains highly competitive, with Deltan Dallagnol holding the highest trader-implied probability for first place amid a crowded field. Recent polls from institutes such as Real Time Big Data and earlier Quaest surveys show statistical ties or narrow leads among Dallagnol, Alexandre Curi, Filipe Barros, Gleisi Hoffmann, and Cristina Graeml, reflecting fragmented voter preferences across parties. Álvaro Dias’s withdrawal in early August removed a prior frontrunner and further compressed the contest. Eligibility questions around Dallagnol’s candidacy and party strategies for vote thresholds continue to influence positioning, while name recognition from prior anti-corruption cases sustains his edge. Upcoming conventions, additional polling, and any late shifts in alliances or turnout patterns among right-leaning and center blocs could widen gaps before election day.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Paraná is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:05 AM ET
Volume
$11,481End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:05 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Paraná is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The Paraná Senate race for one of two seats on October 4 remains highly competitive, with Deltan Dallagnol holding the highest trader-implied probability for first place amid a crowded field. Recent polls from institutes such as Real Time Big Data and earlier Quaest surveys show statistical ties or narrow leads among Dallagnol, Alexandre Curi, Filipe Barros, Gleisi Hoffmann, and Cristina Graeml, reflecting fragmented voter preferences across parties. Álvaro Dias’s withdrawal in early August removed a prior frontrunner and further compressed the contest. Eligibility questions around Dallagnol’s candidacy and party strategies for vote thresholds continue to influence positioning, while name recognition from prior anti-corruption cases sustains his edge. Upcoming conventions, additional polling, and any late shifts in alliances or turnout patterns among right-leaning and center blocs could widen gaps before election day.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Paraná is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$11,481End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:05 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Paraná Senate race for one of two seats on October 4 remains highly competitive, with Deltan Dallagnol holding the highest trader-implied probability for first place amid a crowded field. Recent polls from institutes such as Real Time Big Data and earlier Quaest surveys show statistical ties or narrow leads among Dallagnol, Alexandre Curi, Filipe Barros, Gleisi Hoffmann, and Cristina Graeml, reflecting fragmented voter preferences across parties. Álvaro Dias’s withdrawal in early August removed a prior frontrunner and further compressed the contest. Eligibility questions around Dallagnol’s candidacy and party strategies for vote thresholds continue to influence positioning, while name recognition from prior anti-corruption cases sustains his edge. Upcoming conventions, additional polling, and any late shifts in alliances or turnout patterns among right-leaning and center blocs could widen gaps before election day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions