**Raquel Lyra (PSD), the incumbent governor seeking re-election, leads the 2026 Pernambuco gubernatorial race at 63.5% implied probability, ahead of main challenger João Campos (PSB) at 36%, with minor candidates such as Ivan Moraes (PSOL) near zero.** A fresh Datafolha poll released August 21 shows Lyra at 47% versus Campos at 40% in the first-round scenario (outside the three-point margin of error for the first time), rising to 52-44% on valid votes and raising the prospect of a first-round victory on October 4. Campaigns officially began August 16, with Lyra emphasizing her administration’s delivery on creches, public security improvements, and infrastructure while maintaining neutrality on the presidential contest despite federal partnerships. Campos, the former Recife mayor, draws backing from the PSB-led Frente Popular and an endorsement from President Lula, yet trails in recent surveys. Minor candidates remain marginal. Trader consensus reflects the polling momentum and incumbency edge heading into the October first round.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRaquel Lyra 64%
João Campos 36%
Ivan Moraes <1%
$30,442 Vol.
$30,442 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Raquel Lyra
64%
João Campos
36%
Ivan Moraes
<1%
Raquel Lyra 64%
João Campos 36%
Ivan Moraes <1%
$30,442 Vol.
$30,442 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Raquel Lyra
$12,938 Vol.
64%
João Campos
$14,484 Vol.
36%
Ivan Moraes
$3,020 Vol.
<1%
The Pernambuco gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).**Raquel Lyra (PSD), the incumbent governor seeking re-election, leads the 2026 Pernambuco gubernatorial race at 63.5% implied probability, ahead of main challenger João Campos (PSB) at 36%, with minor candidates such as Ivan Moraes (PSOL) near zero.**
A fresh Datafolha poll released August 21 shows Lyra at 47% versus Campos at 40% in the first-round scenario (outside the three-point margin of error for the first time), rising to 52-44% on valid votes and raising the prospect of a first-round victory on October 4. Campaigns officially began August 16, with Lyra emphasizing her administration’s delivery on creches, public security improvements, and infrastructure while maintaining neutrality on the presidential contest despite federal partnerships. Campos, the former Recife mayor, draws backing from the PSB-led Frente Popular and an endorsement from President Lula, yet trails in recent surveys. Minor candidates remain marginal. Trader consensus reflects the polling momentum and incumbency edge heading into the October first round.
The Pernambuco gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Jul 9, 2026, 9:28 PM ET
Volume
$30,442End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Jul 9, 2026, 9:28 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Pernambuco gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).**Raquel Lyra (PSD), the incumbent governor seeking re-election, leads the 2026 Pernambuco gubernatorial race at 63.5% implied probability, ahead of main challenger João Campos (PSB) at 36%, with minor candidates such as Ivan Moraes (PSOL) near zero.**
A fresh Datafolha poll released August 21 shows Lyra at 47% versus Campos at 40% in the first-round scenario (outside the three-point margin of error for the first time), rising to 52-44% on valid votes and raising the prospect of a first-round victory on October 4. Campaigns officially began August 16, with Lyra emphasizing her administration’s delivery on creches, public security improvements, and infrastructure while maintaining neutrality on the presidential contest despite federal partnerships. Campos, the former Recife mayor, draws backing from the PSB-led Frente Popular and an endorsement from President Lula, yet trails in recent surveys. Minor candidates remain marginal. Trader consensus reflects the polling momentum and incumbency edge heading into the October first round.
The Pernambuco gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$30,442End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Jul 9, 2026, 9:28 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Raquel Lyra (PSD), the incumbent governor seeking re-election, leads the 2026 Pernambuco gubernatorial race at 63.5% implied probability, ahead of main challenger João Campos (PSB) at 36%, with minor candidates such as Ivan Moraes (PSOL) near zero.** A fresh Datafolha poll released August 21 shows Lyra at 47% versus Campos at 40% in the first-round scenario (outside the three-point margin of error for the first time), rising to 52-44% on valid votes and raising the prospect of a first-round victory on October 4. Campaigns officially began August 16, with Lyra emphasizing her administration’s delivery on creches, public security improvements, and infrastructure while maintaining neutrality on the presidential contest despite federal partnerships. Campos, the former Recife mayor, draws backing from the PSB-led Frente Popular and an endorsement from President Lula, yet trails in recent surveys. Minor candidates remain marginal. Trader consensus reflects the polling momentum and incumbency edge heading into the October first round.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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