Recent polling shows a fragmented field for São Paulo’s two Senate seats, with ex-ministers Marina Silva and Simone Tebet tied at 12% each, André do Prado at 10%, Guilherme Derrite at 7%, and Ricardo Salles at 6%, amid 14–21% undecided or blank ballots. The race remains tight because left-leaning candidates share a coalition ticket while right-leaning contenders split support among PL, PP, and Novo voters aligned with Governor Tarcísio de Freitas. Trader consensus reflected in current prices highlights uncertainty over which names will consolidate second-place support before October voting. Late-campaign polling shifts, formal alliances, turnout among swing voters, or national political developments could widen gaps among the leading contenders.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMarina Silva 30%
Guilherme Derrite 23%
Simone Tebet 19%
Salles 13.6%
$17,940 Vol.
$17,940 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Marina Silva
30%
Guilherme Derrite
23%
Simone Tebet
19%
Salles
14%
André do Prado
10%
Ednelson Cesaretti
<1%
Geraldo Rufino
<1%
Marcio Alves
<1%
Petter Maahs
<1%
Weller Gonçalves
<1%
William Teixeira
<1%
Dra. Eliana Ferreira
<1%
Maíra de Souza
<1%
Soninha Francine
<1%
Marina Silva 30%
Guilherme Derrite 23%
Simone Tebet 19%
Salles 13.6%
$17,940 Vol.
$17,940 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Marina Silva
$2,778 Vol.
30%
Guilherme Derrite
$3,098 Vol.
23%
Simone Tebet
$3,433 Vol.
19%
Salles
$1,586 Vol.
14%
André do Prado
$1,802 Vol.
10%
Ednelson Cesaretti
$580 Vol.
<1%
Geraldo Rufino
$528 Vol.
<1%
Marcio Alves
$408 Vol.
<1%
Petter Maahs
$757 Vol.
<1%
Weller Gonçalves
$813 Vol.
<1%
William Teixeira
$686 Vol.
<1%
Dra. Eliana Ferreira
$457 Vol.
<1%
Maíra de Souza
$406 Vol.
<1%
Soninha Francine
$608 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling shows a fragmented field for São Paulo’s two Senate seats, with ex-ministers Marina Silva and Simone Tebet tied at 12% each, André do Prado at 10%, Guilherme Derrite at 7%, and Ricardo Salles at 6%, amid 14–21% undecided or blank ballots. The race remains tight because left-leaning candidates share a coalition ticket while right-leaning contenders split support among PL, PP, and Novo voters aligned with Governor Tarcísio de Freitas. Trader consensus reflected in current prices highlights uncertainty over which names will consolidate second-place support before October voting. Late-campaign polling shifts, formal alliances, turnout among swing voters, or national political developments could widen gaps among the leading contenders.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:16 AM ET
Volume
$17,940End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:16 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling shows a fragmented field for São Paulo’s two Senate seats, with ex-ministers Marina Silva and Simone Tebet tied at 12% each, André do Prado at 10%, Guilherme Derrite at 7%, and Ricardo Salles at 6%, amid 14–21% undecided or blank ballots. The race remains tight because left-leaning candidates share a coalition ticket while right-leaning contenders split support among PL, PP, and Novo voters aligned with Governor Tarcísio de Freitas. Trader consensus reflected in current prices highlights uncertainty over which names will consolidate second-place support before October voting. Late-campaign polling shifts, formal alliances, turnout among swing voters, or national political developments could widen gaps among the leading contenders.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$17,940End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:16 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling shows a fragmented field for São Paulo’s two Senate seats, with ex-ministers Marina Silva and Simone Tebet tied at 12% each, André do Prado at 10%, Guilherme Derrite at 7%, and Ricardo Salles at 6%, amid 14–21% undecided or blank ballots. The race remains tight because left-leaning candidates share a coalition ticket while right-leaning contenders split support among PL, PP, and Novo voters aligned with Governor Tarcísio de Freitas. Trader consensus reflected in current prices highlights uncertainty over which names will consolidate second-place support before October voting. Late-campaign polling shifts, formal alliances, turnout among swing voters, or national political developments could widen gaps among the leading contenders.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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