Michelle Bolsonaro (PL) holds the leading position in trader assessments for first place in the October 2026 Federal District Senate election, reflecting her confirmation as a candidate in early August and consistent leads in recent polling. Surveys from mid-to-late August, including Datafolha and Real Time Big Data, show her ahead in both consolidated and first-vote scenarios, supported by PL party backing alongside Bia Kicis for the two available seats. Incumbent Leila do Vôlei (PDT) remains a close contender in re-election bids, while Erika Kokay (PT) and others trail amid a crowded field where voters select two senators. Earlier uncertainties around family and party dynamics resolved without derailing her momentum, with no major shifts reported in the immediate days prior to the latest data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMichelle Bolsonaro 59%
Leila do Vôlei 35%
Erika Kokay 13.6%
Bia Kicis <1%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Michelle Bolsonaro
59%
Leila do Vôlei
35%
Erika Kokay
14%
Bia Kicis
1%
Professor Guilherme Amorim
<1%
Avenir Rosa
<1%
Ronaldo Fonseca
<1%
Sebastião Coelho
<1%
Zanata
<1%
Guto Felício dos Santos
<1%
David Horn
<1%
Marley
<1%
Tiago
<1%
Michelle Bolsonaro 59%
Leila do Vôlei 35%
Erika Kokay 13.6%
Bia Kicis <1%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Michelle Bolsonaro
$1,639 Vol.
59%
Leila do Vôlei
$1,646 Vol.
35%
Erika Kokay
$504 Vol.
14%
Bia Kicis
$2,377 Vol.
1%
Professor Guilherme Amorim
$401 Vol.
<1%
Avenir Rosa
$257 Vol.
<1%
Ronaldo Fonseca
$257 Vol.
<1%
Sebastião Coelho
$320 Vol.
<1%
Zanata
$257 Vol.
<1%
Guto Felício dos Santos
$257 Vol.
<1%
David Horn
$262 Vol.
<1%
Marley
$356 Vol.
<1%
Tiago
$397 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Federal District is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Michelle Bolsonaro (PL) holds the leading position in trader assessments for first place in the October 2026 Federal District Senate election, reflecting her confirmation as a candidate in early August and consistent leads in recent polling. Surveys from mid-to-late August, including Datafolha and Real Time Big Data, show her ahead in both consolidated and first-vote scenarios, supported by PL party backing alongside Bia Kicis for the two available seats. Incumbent Leila do Vôlei (PDT) remains a close contender in re-election bids, while Erika Kokay (PT) and others trail amid a crowded field where voters select two senators. Earlier uncertainties around family and party dynamics resolved without derailing her momentum, with no major shifts reported in the immediate days prior to the latest data.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Federal District is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 5:57 AM ET
Volume
$8,928End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:57 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Federal District is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Michelle Bolsonaro (PL) holds the leading position in trader assessments for first place in the October 2026 Federal District Senate election, reflecting her confirmation as a candidate in early August and consistent leads in recent polling. Surveys from mid-to-late August, including Datafolha and Real Time Big Data, show her ahead in both consolidated and first-vote scenarios, supported by PL party backing alongside Bia Kicis for the two available seats. Incumbent Leila do Vôlei (PDT) remains a close contender in re-election bids, while Erika Kokay (PT) and others trail amid a crowded field where voters select two senators. Earlier uncertainties around family and party dynamics resolved without derailing her momentum, with no major shifts reported in the immediate days prior to the latest data.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Federal District is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$8,928End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:57 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Michelle Bolsonaro (PL) holds the leading position in trader assessments for first place in the October 2026 Federal District Senate election, reflecting her confirmation as a candidate in early August and consistent leads in recent polling. Surveys from mid-to-late August, including Datafolha and Real Time Big Data, show her ahead in both consolidated and first-vote scenarios, supported by PL party backing alongside Bia Kicis for the two available seats. Incumbent Leila do Vôlei (PDT) remains a close contender in re-election bids, while Erika Kokay (PT) and others trail amid a crowded field where voters select two senators. Earlier uncertainties around family and party dynamics resolved without derailing her momentum, with no major shifts reported in the immediate days prior to the latest data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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