Traders assign the highest implied probability (36%) to a peak of 70-71°F in San Francisco on August 24 because National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble model guidance show a persistent marine layer moderating daytime highs near the seasonal average of 68-72°F. Cool sea-surface temperatures from coastal upwelling, combined with onshore flow and afternoon sea breezes, suppress warming despite clear skies inland; the 68-69°F and 72-73°F bins (21.5% and 20.5%) capture remaining uncertainty in exact fog clearance timing. Updated model runs through the morning will refine these odds ahead of official daily maximum reporting.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in San Francisco on August 24?
70-71°F 39%
72-73°F 26%
68-69°F 21%
74-75°F 9%
$11,334 Vol.
$11,334 Vol.
63°F or below
<1%
64-65°F
1%
66-67°F
3%
68-69°F
21%
70-71°F
39%
72-73°F
26%
74-75°F
9%
76-77°F
2%
78-79°F
1%
80-81°F
<1%
82°F or higher
<1%
70-71°F 39%
72-73°F 26%
68-69°F 21%
74-75°F 9%
$11,334 Vol.
$11,334 Vol.
63°F or below
<1%
64-65°F
1%
66-67°F
3%
68-69°F
21%
70-71°F
39%
72-73°F
26%
74-75°F
9%
76-77°F
2%
78-79°F
1%
80-81°F
<1%
82°F or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 22, 2026, 8:57 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Resolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders assign the highest implied probability (36%) to a peak of 70-71°F in San Francisco on August 24 because National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble model guidance show a persistent marine layer moderating daytime highs near the seasonal average of 68-72°F. Cool sea-surface temperatures from coastal upwelling, combined with onshore flow and afternoon sea breezes, suppress warming despite clear skies inland; the 68-69°F and 72-73°F bins (21.5% and 20.5%) capture remaining uncertainty in exact fog clearance timing. Updated model runs through the morning will refine these odds ahead of official daily maximum reporting.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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