Latest Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts and ensemble model runs project a daytime maximum of 33°C in Tokyo on August 24, consistent with the 99.8% market-implied probability. Persistent high-pressure conditions and light southerly flow have maintained stable, warm air masses with minimal cooling overnight, aligning with typical late-August climatology for the Kanto region. Surface observations and satellite-derived temperature trends show little deviation from these projections through the morning hours. A narrow set of scenarios—such as rapid afternoon convective development, unforecast wind shifts from the north, or localized measurement discrepancies at official stations—could still push the recorded high outside the 33°C threshold, though current guidance assigns them very low likelihood before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Tokyo on August 24?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 24?
33°C 99.8%
35°C or higher <1%
34°C <1%
25°C or below <1%
$43,100 Vol.
$43,100 Vol.
Aug 24, 2026
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C
100%
34°C
<1%
35°C or higher
<1%
33°C 99.8%
35°C or higher <1%
34°C <1%
25°C or below <1%
$43,100 Vol.
$43,100 Vol.
Aug 24, 2026
25°C or below
$1,424 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$2,422 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$2,560 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$729 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$1,731 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$2,061 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$6,931 Vol.
<1%
32°C
$5,784 Vol.
<1%
33°C
$6,080 Vol.
100%
34°C
$5,953 Vol.
<1%
35°C or higher
$7,424 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts and ensemble model runs project a daytime maximum of 33°C in Tokyo on August 24, consistent with the 99.8% market-implied probability. Persistent high-pressure conditions and light southerly flow have maintained stable, warm air masses with minimal cooling overnight, aligning with typical late-August climatology for the Kanto region. Surface observations and satellite-derived temperature trends show little deviation from these projections through the morning hours. A narrow set of scenarios—such as rapid afternoon convective development, unforecast wind shifts from the north, or localized measurement discrepancies at official stations—could still push the recorded high outside the 33°C threshold, though current guidance assigns them very low likelihood before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 22, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$43,100End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts and ensemble model runs project a daytime maximum of 33°C in Tokyo on August 24, consistent with the 99.8% market-implied probability. Persistent high-pressure conditions and light southerly flow have maintained stable, warm air masses with minimal cooling overnight, aligning with typical late-August climatology for the Kanto region. Surface observations and satellite-derived temperature trends show little deviation from these projections through the morning hours. A narrow set of scenarios—such as rapid afternoon convective development, unforecast wind shifts from the north, or localized measurement discrepancies at official stations—could still push the recorded high outside the 33°C threshold, though current guidance assigns them very low likelihood before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$43,100End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts and ensemble model runs project a daytime maximum of 33°C in Tokyo on August 24, consistent with the 99.8% market-implied probability. Persistent high-pressure conditions and light southerly flow have maintained stable, warm air masses with minimal cooling overnight, aligning with typical late-August climatology for the Kanto region. Surface observations and satellite-derived temperature trends show little deviation from these projections through the morning hours. A narrow set of scenarios—such as rapid afternoon convective development, unforecast wind shifts from the north, or localized measurement discrepancies at official stations—could still push the recorded high outside the 33°C threshold, though current guidance assigns them very low likelihood before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions