**Forecast models and official guidance from MetService, supported by GFS and other global ensembles, have converged on a daily maximum of 15°C for Wellington on August 24 under northwesterly flow, mostly clear skies, and mild air advection.** This aligns with recent observations, including a 17°C peak on August 23 and consistent readings near 14–15°C amid dry, breezy conditions typical of late winter. The market’s 99.5% implied probability on 15°C reflects trader confidence in the narrow range expected from these verified atmospheric patterns and station measurements. A realistic challenge would require a late surge in cloud cover, stronger southerly winds, or localized microclimate effects at the official recording site that cap or exceed the forecast by 1–2°C before the daily high is finalized.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Wellington on August 24?
Highest temperature in Wellington on August 24?
15°C 99.4%
16°C <1%
18°C <1%
17°C <1%
NEW
$54,811 Vol.
NEW
$54,811 Vol.
Aug 24, 2026
9°C or below
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
99%
16°C
1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C or higher
<1%
15°C 99.4%
16°C <1%
18°C <1%
17°C <1%
NEW
$54,811 Vol.
NEW
$54,811 Vol.
Aug 24, 2026
9°C or below
$364 Vol.
<1%
10°C
$376 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$344 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$572 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$2,702 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$12,484 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$13,006 Vol.
99%
16°C
$9,642 Vol.
1%
17°C
$7,900 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$5,229 Vol.
<1%
19°C or higher
$2,191 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models and official guidance from MetService, supported by GFS and other global ensembles, have converged on a daily maximum of 15°C for Wellington on August 24 under northwesterly flow, mostly clear skies, and mild air advection.** This aligns with recent observations, including a 17°C peak on August 23 and consistent readings near 14–15°C amid dry, breezy conditions typical of late winter. The market’s 99.5% implied probability on 15°C reflects trader confidence in the narrow range expected from these verified atmospheric patterns and station measurements.
A realistic challenge would require a late surge in cloud cover, stronger southerly winds, or localized microclimate effects at the official recording site that cap or exceed the forecast by 1–2°C before the daily high is finalized.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 22, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$54,811End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models and official guidance from MetService, supported by GFS and other global ensembles, have converged on a daily maximum of 15°C for Wellington on August 24 under northwesterly flow, mostly clear skies, and mild air advection.** This aligns with recent observations, including a 17°C peak on August 23 and consistent readings near 14–15°C amid dry, breezy conditions typical of late winter. The market’s 99.5% implied probability on 15°C reflects trader confidence in the narrow range expected from these verified atmospheric patterns and station measurements.
A realistic challenge would require a late surge in cloud cover, stronger southerly winds, or localized microclimate effects at the official recording site that cap or exceed the forecast by 1–2°C before the daily high is finalized.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$54,811End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast models and official guidance from MetService, supported by GFS and other global ensembles, have converged on a daily maximum of 15°C for Wellington on August 24 under northwesterly flow, mostly clear skies, and mild air advection.** This aligns with recent observations, including a 17°C peak on August 23 and consistent readings near 14–15°C amid dry, breezy conditions typical of late winter. The market’s 99.5% implied probability on 15°C reflects trader confidence in the narrow range expected from these verified atmospheric patterns and station measurements. A realistic challenge would require a late surge in cloud cover, stronger southerly winds, or localized microclimate effects at the official recording site that cap or exceed the forecast by 1–2°C before the daily high is finalized.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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