Recent DWD and European forecast model consensus points to an overnight minimum of 7 °C in Munich on August 24, driving the 97 % market-implied probability for that exact outcome. Clear skies and light northeasterly flow under a stable high-pressure ridge have allowed radiational cooling to reach this level without the deeper chill or cloud cover that would push readings to 6 °C or below. Historical August climatology places typical minima near 12–14 °C, so the current trajectory represents a modest negative anomaly consistent with the observed pressure pattern. Traders assign only 8 % to 6 °C or colder because model guidance shows little additional cooling potential before dawn. A late-evening wind shift or unforecast cloud build-up could still alter the final station reading and shift resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Munich on August 24?
Lowest temperature in Munich on August 24?
7°C 97%
6°C or below 15%
8°C <1%
9°C <1%
NEW
NEW
Aug 24, 2026
6°C or below
15%
7°C
97%
8°C
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C or higher
<1%
7°C 97%
6°C or below 15%
8°C <1%
9°C <1%
NEW
NEW
Aug 24, 2026
6°C or below
$66 Vol.
15%
7°C
$171 Vol.
97%
8°C
$389 Vol.
<1%
9°C
$1,499 Vol.
<1%
10°C
$266 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$261 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$363 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$183 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$253 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$389 Vol.
<1%
16°C or higher
$510 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent DWD and European forecast model consensus points to an overnight minimum of 7 °C in Munich on August 24, driving the 97 % market-implied probability for that exact outcome. Clear skies and light northeasterly flow under a stable high-pressure ridge have allowed radiational cooling to reach this level without the deeper chill or cloud cover that would push readings to 6 °C or below. Historical August climatology places typical minima near 12–14 °C, so the current trajectory represents a modest negative anomaly consistent with the observed pressure pattern. Traders assign only 8 % to 6 °C or colder because model guidance shows little additional cooling potential before dawn. A late-evening wind shift or unforecast cloud build-up could still alter the final station reading and shift resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 22, 2026, 2:29 AM ET
Volume
$4,350End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 2:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddmResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent DWD and European forecast model consensus points to an overnight minimum of 7 °C in Munich on August 24, driving the 97 % market-implied probability for that exact outcome. Clear skies and light northeasterly flow under a stable high-pressure ridge have allowed radiational cooling to reach this level without the deeper chill or cloud cover that would push readings to 6 °C or below. Historical August climatology places typical minima near 12–14 °C, so the current trajectory represents a modest negative anomaly consistent with the observed pressure pattern. Traders assign only 8 % to 6 °C or colder because model guidance shows little additional cooling potential before dawn. A late-evening wind shift or unforecast cloud build-up could still alter the final station reading and shift resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$4,350End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 2:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddmResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent DWD and European forecast model consensus points to an overnight minimum of 7 °C in Munich on August 24, driving the 97 % market-implied probability for that exact outcome. Clear skies and light northeasterly flow under a stable high-pressure ridge have allowed radiational cooling to reach this level without the deeper chill or cloud cover that would push readings to 6 °C or below. Historical August climatology places typical minima near 12–14 °C, so the current trajectory represents a modest negative anomaly consistent with the observed pressure pattern. Traders assign only 8 % to 6 °C or colder because model guidance shows little additional cooling potential before dawn. A late-evening wind shift or unforecast cloud build-up could still alter the final station reading and shift resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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