Recent forecast models from European meteorological agencies indicate minimum temperatures in Munich on August 25 clustering around 12–14°C under partly cloudy skies and light easterly winds, aligning with climatological norms for late summer when nocturnal radiative cooling typically yields lows near 11–13°C. Ensemble runs show modest spread driven by boundary-layer moisture and cloud cover variability, keeping extreme cold (below 10°C) improbable absent a rapid high-pressure intrusion. Trader consensus on the 12–14°C brackets reflects this narrow uncertainty range, with the elevated probability assigned to sub-9°C outcomes capturing tail risks from potential model underdispersion rather than observed trends. Updated guidance ahead of resolution will hinge on short-range assimilation of surface observations and boundary conditions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Munich on August 25?
Lowest temperature in Munich on August 25?
8°C or below 40%
12°C 30%
13°C 30%
14°C 26%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
8°C or below
40%
9°C
1%
10°C
10%
11°C
19%
12°C
30%
13°C
30%
14°C
26%
15°C
9%
16°C
1%
17°C
6%
18°C or higher
13%
8°C or below 40%
12°C 30%
13°C 30%
14°C 26%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
8°C or below
$140 Vol.
40%
9°C
$20 Vol.
1%
10°C
$0 Vol.
10%
11°C
$0 Vol.
19%
12°C
$0 Vol.
30%
13°C
$0 Vol.
30%
14°C
$0 Vol.
26%
15°C
$0 Vol.
9%
16°C
$5 Vol.
1%
17°C
$140 Vol.
6%
18°C or higher
$140 Vol.
13%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast models from European meteorological agencies indicate minimum temperatures in Munich on August 25 clustering around 12–14°C under partly cloudy skies and light easterly winds, aligning with climatological norms for late summer when nocturnal radiative cooling typically yields lows near 11–13°C. Ensemble runs show modest spread driven by boundary-layer moisture and cloud cover variability, keeping extreme cold (below 10°C) improbable absent a rapid high-pressure intrusion. Trader consensus on the 12–14°C brackets reflects this narrow uncertainty range, with the elevated probability assigned to sub-9°C outcomes capturing tail risks from potential model underdispersion rather than observed trends. Updated guidance ahead of resolution will hinge on short-range assimilation of surface observations and boundary conditions.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 23, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$445End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddmResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast models from European meteorological agencies indicate minimum temperatures in Munich on August 25 clustering around 12–14°C under partly cloudy skies and light easterly winds, aligning with climatological norms for late summer when nocturnal radiative cooling typically yields lows near 11–13°C. Ensemble runs show modest spread driven by boundary-layer moisture and cloud cover variability, keeping extreme cold (below 10°C) improbable absent a rapid high-pressure intrusion. Trader consensus on the 12–14°C brackets reflects this narrow uncertainty range, with the elevated probability assigned to sub-9°C outcomes capturing tail risks from potential model underdispersion rather than observed trends. Updated guidance ahead of resolution will hinge on short-range assimilation of surface observations and boundary conditions.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$445End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddmResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast models from European meteorological agencies indicate minimum temperatures in Munich on August 25 clustering around 12–14°C under partly cloudy skies and light easterly winds, aligning with climatological norms for late summer when nocturnal radiative cooling typically yields lows near 11–13°C. Ensemble runs show modest spread driven by boundary-layer moisture and cloud cover variability, keeping extreme cold (below 10°C) improbable absent a rapid high-pressure intrusion. Trader consensus on the 12–14°C brackets reflects this narrow uncertainty range, with the elevated probability assigned to sub-9°C outcomes capturing tail risks from potential model underdispersion rather than observed trends. Updated guidance ahead of resolution will hinge on short-range assimilation of surface observations and boundary conditions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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