Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts indicate a minimum temperature near 25°C for Tokyo on August 26 amid persistent above-normal summer heat driven by a strong Pacific High. This setup favors warm, humid air masses that limit nocturnal radiative cooling, while Tokyo’s urban heat island effect further elevates nighttime lows compared to rural baselines. Scattered showers and cloud cover expected that day may trap additional heat, supporting market-implied probabilities peaking at 27–28°C. Traders appear to weigh these ongoing heatwave dynamics and model consensus on limited cooling against typical August climatology of 24°C lows, with any forecast revisions from updated JMA runs or local observations likely to shift sentiment quickly ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Tokyo on August 26?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on August 26?
28°C 45%
27°C 36%
30°C 15%
26°C 15%
NEW
NEW
Aug 26, 2026
22°C or below
3%
23°C
10%
24°C
7%
25°C
10%
26°C
15%
27°C
36%
28°C
45%
29°C
9%
30°C
15%
31°C
7%
32°C or higher
1%
28°C 45%
27°C 36%
30°C 15%
26°C 15%
NEW
NEW
Aug 26, 2026
22°C or below
$20 Vol.
3%
23°C
$5 Vol.
10%
24°C
$5 Vol.
7%
25°C
$20 Vol.
10%
26°C
$0 Vol.
15%
27°C
$33 Vol.
36%
28°C
$44 Vol.
45%
29°C
$5 Vol.
9%
30°C
$5 Vol.
15%
31°C
$5 Vol.
7%
32°C or higher
$0 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts indicate a minimum temperature near 25°C for Tokyo on August 26 amid persistent above-normal summer heat driven by a strong Pacific High. This setup favors warm, humid air masses that limit nocturnal radiative cooling, while Tokyo’s urban heat island effect further elevates nighttime lows compared to rural baselines. Scattered showers and cloud cover expected that day may trap additional heat, supporting market-implied probabilities peaking at 27–28°C. Traders appear to weigh these ongoing heatwave dynamics and model consensus on limited cooling against typical August climatology of 24°C lows, with any forecast revisions from updated JMA runs or local observations likely to shift sentiment quickly ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 24, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$142End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts indicate a minimum temperature near 25°C for Tokyo on August 26 amid persistent above-normal summer heat driven by a strong Pacific High. This setup favors warm, humid air masses that limit nocturnal radiative cooling, while Tokyo’s urban heat island effect further elevates nighttime lows compared to rural baselines. Scattered showers and cloud cover expected that day may trap additional heat, supporting market-implied probabilities peaking at 27–28°C. Traders appear to weigh these ongoing heatwave dynamics and model consensus on limited cooling against typical August climatology of 24°C lows, with any forecast revisions from updated JMA runs or local observations likely to shift sentiment quickly ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$142End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts indicate a minimum temperature near 25°C for Tokyo on August 26 amid persistent above-normal summer heat driven by a strong Pacific High. This setup favors warm, humid air masses that limit nocturnal radiative cooling, while Tokyo’s urban heat island effect further elevates nighttime lows compared to rural baselines. Scattered showers and cloud cover expected that day may trap additional heat, supporting market-implied probabilities peaking at 27–28°C. Traders appear to weigh these ongoing heatwave dynamics and model consensus on limited cooling against typical August climatology of 24°C lows, with any forecast revisions from updated JMA runs or local observations likely to shift sentiment quickly ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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