**Trader sentiment for Warsaw's August 24, 2026 minimum temperature reflects notable uncertainty in short-range forecast guidance, with clustered probabilities around 7–12 °C.** Current model consensus points to a cool night under variable high pressure, where clear or partly cloudy skies enable strong nocturnal radiative cooling. Light winds reduce turbulent mixing, allowing surface temperatures to drop toward the dew point, while modest northeasterly flow may advect slightly cooler continental air. Ensemble spreads in global and regional models (differences in cloud cover and boundary-layer humidity) create the tight clustering between the 7 °C-or-below, 10 °C, 11 °C, and 12 °C outcomes, each near one-third implied probability. Higher readings above 13 °C carry negligible weight because they would require sustained cloud cover or stronger warm advection inconsistent with recent analyses. Official observations from Warsaw stations, resolved against the calendar-day minimum, will determine the outcome once all hourly data are finalized.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Warsaw on August 24?
Lowest temperature in Warsaw on August 24?
11°C 95%
10°C 36%
9°C 17%
7°C or below 15%
NEW
NEW
Aug 24, 2026
7°C or below
15%
8°C
10%
9°C
17%
10°C
22%
11°C
95%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C or higher
<1%
11°C 95%
10°C 36%
9°C 17%
7°C or below 15%
NEW
NEW
Aug 24, 2026
7°C or below
$79 Vol.
15%
8°C
$74 Vol.
10%
9°C
$114 Vol.
17%
10°C
$20 Vol.
22%
11°C
$89 Vol.
95%
12°C
$348 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$225 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$115 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$334 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$390 Vol.
<1%
17°C or higher
$168 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader sentiment for Warsaw's August 24, 2026 minimum temperature reflects notable uncertainty in short-range forecast guidance, with clustered probabilities around 7–12 °C.**
Current model consensus points to a cool night under variable high pressure, where clear or partly cloudy skies enable strong nocturnal radiative cooling. Light winds reduce turbulent mixing, allowing surface temperatures to drop toward the dew point, while modest northeasterly flow may advect slightly cooler continental air. Ensemble spreads in global and regional models (differences in cloud cover and boundary-layer humidity) create the tight clustering between the 7 °C-or-below, 10 °C, 11 °C, and 12 °C outcomes, each near one-third implied probability.
Higher readings above 13 °C carry negligible weight because they would require sustained cloud cover or stronger warm advection inconsistent with recent analyses. Official observations from Warsaw stations, resolved against the calendar-day minimum, will determine the outcome once all hourly data are finalized.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 22, 2026, 2:30 AM ET
Volume
$1,955End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 2:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader sentiment for Warsaw's August 24, 2026 minimum temperature reflects notable uncertainty in short-range forecast guidance, with clustered probabilities around 7–12 °C.**
Current model consensus points to a cool night under variable high pressure, where clear or partly cloudy skies enable strong nocturnal radiative cooling. Light winds reduce turbulent mixing, allowing surface temperatures to drop toward the dew point, while modest northeasterly flow may advect slightly cooler continental air. Ensemble spreads in global and regional models (differences in cloud cover and boundary-layer humidity) create the tight clustering between the 7 °C-or-below, 10 °C, 11 °C, and 12 °C outcomes, each near one-third implied probability.
Higher readings above 13 °C carry negligible weight because they would require sustained cloud cover or stronger warm advection inconsistent with recent analyses. Official observations from Warsaw stations, resolved against the calendar-day minimum, will determine the outcome once all hourly data are finalized.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,955End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 2:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader sentiment for Warsaw's August 24, 2026 minimum temperature reflects notable uncertainty in short-range forecast guidance, with clustered probabilities around 7–12 °C.** Current model consensus points to a cool night under variable high pressure, where clear or partly cloudy skies enable strong nocturnal radiative cooling. Light winds reduce turbulent mixing, allowing surface temperatures to drop toward the dew point, while modest northeasterly flow may advect slightly cooler continental air. Ensemble spreads in global and regional models (differences in cloud cover and boundary-layer humidity) create the tight clustering between the 7 °C-or-below, 10 °C, 11 °C, and 12 °C outcomes, each near one-third implied probability. Higher readings above 13 °C carry negligible weight because they would require sustained cloud cover or stronger warm advection inconsistent with recent analyses. Official observations from Warsaw stations, resolved against the calendar-day minimum, will determine the outcome once all hourly data are finalized.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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