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icon for Lowest temperature in Wellington on August 24?

Lowest temperature in Wellington on August 24?

icon for Lowest temperature in Wellington on August 24?

Lowest temperature in Wellington on August 24?

Aug 24

Aug 25

Aug 26

Aug 24

Aug 25

Aug 26

8°C 99%

5°C or below <1%

6°C <1%

7°C <1%

Polymarket
NEW

8°C 99%

5°C or below <1%

6°C <1%

7°C <1%

Polymarket
NEW

5°C or below

$294 Vol.

1%

6°C

$76 Vol.

1%

7°C

$89 Vol.

1%

8°C

$218 Vol.

99%

9°C

$427 Vol.

<1%

10°C

$392 Vol.

<1%

11°C

$337 Vol.

<1%

12°C

$489 Vol.

<1%

13°C

$335 Vol.

<1%

14°C

$481 Vol.

<1%

15°C or higher

$150 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors 8°C as the lowest temperature recorded in Wellington on August 24, 2026 (98.5% implied probability), driven by the latest official forecast consensus from MetService and numerical weather prediction models.** These indicate a minimum of 8°C under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies with moderate northerly winds, consistent with late-winter climatology where average overnight lows hover near 7–9°C. Recent model runs show stable high pressure and limited cloud cover preventing significant radiative cooling below this threshold, with observed temperatures overnight aligning closely to guidance. A shift to clearer, calmer conditions or a stronger high-pressure ridge could allow the mercury to dip to 7°C or lower, while any increase in cloud or wind would reinforce the 8°C floor. Updated observations from Wellington Airport and surrounding stations will determine final resolution.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.

This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$3,289
End Date
Aug 24, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 12:30 AM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors 8°C as the lowest temperature recorded in Wellington on August 24, 2026 (98.5% implied probability), driven by the latest official forecast consensus from MetService and numerical weather prediction models.** These indicate a minimum of 8°C under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies with moderate northerly winds, consistent with late-winter climatology where average overnight lows hover near 7–9°C. Recent model runs show stable high pressure and limited cloud cover preventing significant radiative cooling below this threshold, with observed temperatures overnight aligning closely to guidance. A shift to clearer, calmer conditions or a stronger high-pressure ridge could allow the mercury to dip to 7°C or lower, while any increase in cloud or wind would reinforce the 8°C floor. Updated observations from Wellington Airport and surrounding stations will determine final resolution.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.

This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$3,289
End Date
Aug 24, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 12:30 AM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Lowest temperature in Wellington on August 24?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "8°C" at 99%, followed by "6°C" at 1%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 99¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 99% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Lowest temperature in Wellington on August 24?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 22, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Lowest temperature in Wellington on August 24?," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Lowest temperature in Wellington on August 24?" is "8°C" at 99%, meaning the market assigns a 99% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "6°C" at 1%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Lowest temperature in Wellington on August 24?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.