Recent official forecasts from MetService-aligned models and international ensembles indicate a minimum temperature for Wellington on August 25 most likely near 11–12 °C, with northwesterly flow moderating the usual winter radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies. Trader consensus clusters tightly on these values because ensemble spreads remain modest this close to the event, reflecting typical August climatology (mean minimum ~9–11 °C) offset by above-average sea-surface temperatures and persistent onshore winds that limit overnight drops. Lower outcomes (10 °C or below) require clearer skies and lighter winds for enhanced cooling, while 13 °C or higher would need stronger warm advection; both scenarios carry lower probability in current runs. Fresh model updates expected within 24 hours will sharpen resolution criteria around the precise hourly minimum recorded at the official Wellington station.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Wellington on August 25?
Lowest temperature in Wellington on August 25?
8°C or below 42%
18°C or higher 42%
12°C 37%
11°C 29%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
8°C or below
42%
9°C
19%
10°C
22%
11°C
29%
12°C
37%
13°C
27%
14°C
8%
15°C
1%
16°C
3%
17°C
1%
18°C or higher
42%
8°C or below 42%
18°C or higher 42%
12°C 37%
11°C 29%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
8°C or below
$5 Vol.
42%
9°C
$15 Vol.
19%
10°C
$0 Vol.
22%
11°C
$0 Vol.
29%
12°C
$0 Vol.
37%
13°C
$0 Vol.
27%
14°C
$21 Vol.
8%
15°C
$5 Vol.
1%
16°C
$5 Vol.
3%
17°C
$493 Vol.
1%
18°C or higher
$5 Vol.
42%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official forecasts from MetService-aligned models and international ensembles indicate a minimum temperature for Wellington on August 25 most likely near 11–12 °C, with northwesterly flow moderating the usual winter radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies. Trader consensus clusters tightly on these values because ensemble spreads remain modest this close to the event, reflecting typical August climatology (mean minimum ~9–11 °C) offset by above-average sea-surface temperatures and persistent onshore winds that limit overnight drops. Lower outcomes (10 °C or below) require clearer skies and lighter winds for enhanced cooling, while 13 °C or higher would need stronger warm advection; both scenarios carry lower probability in current runs. Fresh model updates expected within 24 hours will sharpen resolution criteria around the precise hourly minimum recorded at the official Wellington station.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 23, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$549End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official forecasts from MetService-aligned models and international ensembles indicate a minimum temperature for Wellington on August 25 most likely near 11–12 °C, with northwesterly flow moderating the usual winter radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies. Trader consensus clusters tightly on these values because ensemble spreads remain modest this close to the event, reflecting typical August climatology (mean minimum ~9–11 °C) offset by above-average sea-surface temperatures and persistent onshore winds that limit overnight drops. Lower outcomes (10 °C or below) require clearer skies and lighter winds for enhanced cooling, while 13 °C or higher would need stronger warm advection; both scenarios carry lower probability in current runs. Fresh model updates expected within 24 hours will sharpen resolution criteria around the precise hourly minimum recorded at the official Wellington station.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$549End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent official forecasts from MetService-aligned models and international ensembles indicate a minimum temperature for Wellington on August 25 most likely near 11–12 °C, with northwesterly flow moderating the usual winter radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies. Trader consensus clusters tightly on these values because ensemble spreads remain modest this close to the event, reflecting typical August climatology (mean minimum ~9–11 °C) offset by above-average sea-surface temperatures and persistent onshore winds that limit overnight drops. Lower outcomes (10 °C or below) require clearer skies and lighter winds for enhanced cooling, while 13 °C or higher would need stronger warm advection; both scenarios carry lower probability in current runs. Fresh model updates expected within 24 hours will sharpen resolution criteria around the precise hourly minimum recorded at the official Wellington station.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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