The closely contested race for second place in Minas Gerais's 2026 Senate election reflects a highly fragmented field, with recent Datafolha and Quaest polls showing top contenders like Marília Campos (PT), incumbent Carlos Viana (PSD), and Domingos Sávio (PL) each drawing low single-digit support amid high undecided voters. Candidate registrations through mid-August and the start of official campaigning have kept multiple options viable without clear separation. Trader consensus on Polymarket prices this uncertainty, with Viana and Campos holding the highest implied probabilities but no dominant edge. Further polls, party alliances, or campaign events before October 4 could shift momentum among the leading names.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedCarlos Viana 44%
Marília Campos 30%
Domingos Sávio 10.8%
Marcelo Aro 2.5%
$21,702 Vol.
$21,702 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Carlos Viana
44%
Marília Campos
30%
Domingos Sávio
11%
Marcelo Aro
2%
Ana Luiza do MLB
<1%
Marco Antônio Superman
<1%
Arcanjo Pimenta
<1%
Victória Mello Vic
<1%
Manoel Carvalho
<1%
Fidélis Alcântara
<1%
Tião Pessoa
<1%
Carlin Moura
<1%
Marcelo Heringer
<1%
Jordano Metalúrgico
<1%
Juiz Ramon Moreira
<1%
Gustavo Galassi
<1%
Áurea Carolina
<1%
Carlos Viana 44%
Marília Campos 30%
Domingos Sávio 10.8%
Marcelo Aro 2.5%
$21,702 Vol.
$21,702 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Carlos Viana
$7,571 Vol.
44%
Marília Campos
$4,077 Vol.
30%
Domingos Sávio
$2,048 Vol.
11%
Marcelo Aro
$635 Vol.
2%
Ana Luiza do MLB
$549 Vol.
<1%
Marco Antônio Superman
$596 Vol.
<1%
Arcanjo Pimenta
$579 Vol.
<1%
Victória Mello Vic
$576 Vol.
<1%
Manoel Carvalho
$592 Vol.
<1%
Fidélis Alcântara
$627 Vol.
<1%
Tião Pessoa
$576 Vol.
<1%
Carlin Moura
$590 Vol.
<1%
Marcelo Heringer
$573 Vol.
<1%
Jordano Metalúrgico
$547 Vol.
<1%
Juiz Ramon Moreira
$458 Vol.
<1%
Gustavo Galassi
$541 Vol.
<1%
Áurea Carolina
$565 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Minas Gerais is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The closely contested race for second place in Minas Gerais's 2026 Senate election reflects a highly fragmented field, with recent Datafolha and Quaest polls showing top contenders like Marília Campos (PT), incumbent Carlos Viana (PSD), and Domingos Sávio (PL) each drawing low single-digit support amid high undecided voters. Candidate registrations through mid-August and the start of official campaigning have kept multiple options viable without clear separation. Trader consensus on Polymarket prices this uncertainty, with Viana and Campos holding the highest implied probabilities but no dominant edge. Further polls, party alliances, or campaign events before October 4 could shift momentum among the leading names.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Minas Gerais is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:01 AM ET
Volume
$21,702End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:01 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Minas Gerais is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The closely contested race for second place in Minas Gerais's 2026 Senate election reflects a highly fragmented field, with recent Datafolha and Quaest polls showing top contenders like Marília Campos (PT), incumbent Carlos Viana (PSD), and Domingos Sávio (PL) each drawing low single-digit support amid high undecided voters. Candidate registrations through mid-August and the start of official campaigning have kept multiple options viable without clear separation. Trader consensus on Polymarket prices this uncertainty, with Viana and Campos holding the highest implied probabilities but no dominant edge. Further polls, party alliances, or campaign events before October 4 could shift momentum among the leading names.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Minas Gerais is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$21,702End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:01 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The closely contested race for second place in Minas Gerais's 2026 Senate election reflects a highly fragmented field, with recent Datafolha and Quaest polls showing top contenders like Marília Campos (PT), incumbent Carlos Viana (PSD), and Domingos Sávio (PL) each drawing low single-digit support amid high undecided voters. Candidate registrations through mid-August and the start of official campaigning have kept multiple options viable without clear separation. Trader consensus on Polymarket prices this uncertainty, with Viana and Campos holding the highest implied probabilities but no dominant edge. Further polls, party alliances, or campaign events before October 4 could shift momentum among the leading names.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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