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icon for Ceará Senate Election: 1st Place
Politics·Brazil

Ceará Senate Election: 1st Place

icon for Ceará Senate Election: 1st Place
Politics·Brazil

Ceará Senate Election: 1st Place

Cid Gomes 55%

Capitão Wagner 19%

Luizianne 16%

Alcides Fernandes 9%

Polymarket
NEW

Cid Gomes 55%

Capitão Wagner 19%

Luizianne 16%

Alcides Fernandes 9%

Polymarket
NEW
icon for Cid Gomes

Cid Gomes

$2,386 Vol.

55%

icon for Capitão Wagner

Capitão Wagner

$195 Vol.

19%

icon for Luizianne

Luizianne

$95 Vol.

16%

icon for Alcides Fernandes

Alcides Fernandes

$122 Vol.

9%

icon for Catarina Matos

Catarina Matos

$109 Vol.

5%

icon for Lino Alves

Lino Alves

$86 Vol.

4%

icon for Reginaldo

Reginaldo

$88 Vol.

4%

icon for Guilherme Theophilo

Guilherme Theophilo

$86 Vol.

4%

The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Ceará is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Cid Gomes (PSB), the incumbent senator and former Ceará governor, holds the lead in the October 4, 2026, race for the state's two Senate seats due to his established name recognition, recent party convention confirmation for re-election, and consistent polling advantage. Recent surveys, including Real Time Big Data, show him ahead with roughly 27% support, while the contest for second remains tight among Capitão Wagner (União Brasil) and Luizianne Lins (Rede) near 21% each, backed by opposition and government-aligned bases respectively. High undecided rates, shifting alliances within the PT-led state coalition, and six weeks until the first round keep probabilities compressed, with turnout dynamics and any late preference shifts among top contenders the main variables that could widen gaps before voting.

The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Ceará is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$3,168
End Date
Oct 4, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:56 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Ceará is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Ceará is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Cid Gomes (PSB), the incumbent senator and former Ceará governor, holds the lead in the October 4, 2026, race for the state's two Senate seats due to his established name recognition, recent party convention confirmation for re-election, and consistent polling advantage. Recent surveys, including Real Time Big Data, show him ahead with roughly 27% support, while the contest for second remains tight among Capitão Wagner (União Brasil) and Luizianne Lins (Rede) near 21% each, backed by opposition and government-aligned bases respectively. High undecided rates, shifting alliances within the PT-led state coalition, and six weeks until the first round keep probabilities compressed, with turnout dynamics and any late preference shifts among top contenders the main variables that could widen gaps before voting.

The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Ceará is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$3,168
End Date
Oct 4, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:56 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Ceará is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Ceará Senate Election: 1st Place" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 8 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Cid Gomes" at 55%, followed by "Luizianne" at 16%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 55¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 55% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Ceará Senate Election: 1st Place" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 17, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Ceará Senate Election: 1st Place," browse the 8 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Ceará Senate Election: 1st Place" is "Cid Gomes" at 55%, meaning the market assigns a 55% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Luizianne" at 16%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Ceará Senate Election: 1st Place" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.