Recent ECMWF and GFS ensemble runs indicate light southwesterly flow and partly clear skies over Warsaw, favoring radiative cooling and overnight lows near 11–13 °C. This consensus underpins the clustered market-implied odds around 10–12 °C, yet wide ensemble spreads leave room for stronger high pressure or northerly advection that could drop readings to 7 °C or below—the current leading outcome at 34 %. Historical August minima near 12 °C provide context, but today’s resolution hinges on final observed data from official stations, with model updates through the night remaining the key variable for traders.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Warsaw on August 24?
Lowest temperature in Warsaw on August 24?
12°C 34%
8°C 9%
13°C <1%
14°C <1%
NEW
NEW
Aug 24, 2026
7°C or below
-
8°C
9%
9°C
34%
10°C
34%
11°C
34%
12°C
34%
13°C
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C or higher
<1%
12°C 34%
8°C 9%
13°C <1%
14°C <1%
NEW
NEW
Aug 24, 2026
7°C or below
$79 Vol.
-
8°C
$45 Vol.
9%
9°C
$28 Vol.
34%
10°C
$4 Vol.
34%
11°C
$5 Vol.
34%
12°C
$0 Vol.
34%
13°C
$225 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$115 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$334 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$390 Vol.
<1%
17°C or higher
$168 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ECMWF and GFS ensemble runs indicate light southwesterly flow and partly clear skies over Warsaw, favoring radiative cooling and overnight lows near 11–13 °C. This consensus underpins the clustered market-implied odds around 10–12 °C, yet wide ensemble spreads leave room for stronger high pressure or northerly advection that could drop readings to 7 °C or below—the current leading outcome at 34 %. Historical August minima near 12 °C provide context, but today’s resolution hinges on final observed data from official stations, with model updates through the night remaining the key variable for traders.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 22, 2026, 2:30 AM ET
Volume
$1,393End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 2:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ECMWF and GFS ensemble runs indicate light southwesterly flow and partly clear skies over Warsaw, favoring radiative cooling and overnight lows near 11–13 °C. This consensus underpins the clustered market-implied odds around 10–12 °C, yet wide ensemble spreads leave room for stronger high pressure or northerly advection that could drop readings to 7 °C or below—the current leading outcome at 34 %. Historical August minima near 12 °C provide context, but today’s resolution hinges on final observed data from official stations, with model updates through the night remaining the key variable for traders.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,393End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 2:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent ECMWF and GFS ensemble runs indicate light southwesterly flow and partly clear skies over Warsaw, favoring radiative cooling and overnight lows near 11–13 °C. This consensus underpins the clustered market-implied odds around 10–12 °C, yet wide ensemble spreads leave room for stronger high pressure or northerly advection that could drop readings to 7 °C or below—the current leading outcome at 34 %. Historical August minima near 12 °C provide context, but today’s resolution hinges on final observed data from official stations, with model updates through the night remaining the key variable for traders.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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