Above-average tropical cyclone formation in the western North Pacific this season, with 20 named systems by late August 2026 versus the historical average of roughly 13-14 through that point, underpins trader preference for more than eight China landfalls. Active South China Sea monsoon flow and multiple simultaneous systems have already produced documented landfalls including Maysak in Hainan, Noul in Guangdong, and Dolphin along the east coast, with Narra poised to affect the Beibu Gulf region. National Climate Center forecasts anticipate 24-26 total formations and 7-9 landfalls overall, slightly above the long-term mean of 7-9, driven by warmer sea-surface temperatures and steering patterns favoring coastal approaches through the September peak. Upcoming model runs and CMA updates on August activity will likely influence whether the market-implied odds above 8 remain dominant.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many tropical cyclones will make landfall in China during 2026?
How many tropical cyclones will make landfall in China during 2026?
Greater than 8 56%
8 22%
7 14%
6 1.3%
$14,467 Vol.
$14,467 Vol.
Jun 30, 2027
Fewer than 5
1%
5
1%
6
1%
7
14%
8
22%
Greater than 8
56%
Greater than 8 56%
8 22%
7 14%
6 1.3%
$14,467 Vol.
$14,467 Vol.
Jun 30, 2027
Fewer than 5
$1,132 Vol.
1%
5
$4,119 Vol.
1%
6
$2,367 Vol.
1%
7
$1,459 Vol.
14%
8
$2,012 Vol.
22%
Greater than 8
$3,378 Vol.
56%
This market will resolve based on the total number of tropical cyclones recorded making landfall in China during the calendar year 2026 as published on the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Tropical Cyclone Data Center "Landfalling TCs" page (https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html) in the annual Best Track Dataset update for 2026.
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).Above-average tropical cyclone formation in the western North Pacific this season, with 20 named systems by late August 2026 versus the historical average of roughly 13-14 through that point, underpins trader preference for more than eight China landfalls. Active South China Sea monsoon flow and multiple simultaneous systems have already produced documented landfalls including Maysak in Hainan, Noul in Guangdong, and Dolphin along the east coast, with Narra poised to affect the Beibu Gulf region. National Climate Center forecasts anticipate 24-26 total formations and 7-9 landfalls overall, slightly above the long-term mean of 7-9, driven by warmer sea-surface temperatures and steering patterns favoring coastal approaches through the September peak. Upcoming model runs and CMA updates on August activity will likely influence whether the market-implied odds above 8 remain dominant.
This market will resolve based on the total number of tropical cyclones recorded making landfall in China during the calendar year 2026 as published on the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Tropical Cyclone Data Center "Landfalling TCs" page (https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html) in the annual Best Track Dataset update for 2026.
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).
Market Opened: Aug 5, 2026, 2:44 PM ET
Volume
$14,467End Date
Jun 30, 2027Market Opened
Aug 5, 2026, 2:44 PM ETResolution Source
https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.htmlResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the total number of tropical cyclones recorded making landfall in China during the calendar year 2026 as published on the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Tropical Cyclone Data Center "Landfalling TCs" page (https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html) in the annual Best Track Dataset update for 2026.
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).Above-average tropical cyclone formation in the western North Pacific this season, with 20 named systems by late August 2026 versus the historical average of roughly 13-14 through that point, underpins trader preference for more than eight China landfalls. Active South China Sea monsoon flow and multiple simultaneous systems have already produced documented landfalls including Maysak in Hainan, Noul in Guangdong, and Dolphin along the east coast, with Narra poised to affect the Beibu Gulf region. National Climate Center forecasts anticipate 24-26 total formations and 7-9 landfalls overall, slightly above the long-term mean of 7-9, driven by warmer sea-surface temperatures and steering patterns favoring coastal approaches through the September peak. Upcoming model runs and CMA updates on August activity will likely influence whether the market-implied odds above 8 remain dominant.
This market will resolve based on the total number of tropical cyclones recorded making landfall in China during the calendar year 2026 as published on the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Tropical Cyclone Data Center "Landfalling TCs" page (https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html) in the annual Best Track Dataset update for 2026.
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).
Volume
$14,467End Date
Jun 30, 2027Market Opened
Aug 5, 2026, 2:44 PM ETResolution Source
https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.htmlResolver
0x69c47De9D...Above-average tropical cyclone formation in the western North Pacific this season, with 20 named systems by late August 2026 versus the historical average of roughly 13-14 through that point, underpins trader preference for more than eight China landfalls. Active South China Sea monsoon flow and multiple simultaneous systems have already produced documented landfalls including Maysak in Hainan, Noul in Guangdong, and Dolphin along the east coast, with Narra poised to affect the Beibu Gulf region. National Climate Center forecasts anticipate 24-26 total formations and 7-9 landfalls overall, slightly above the long-term mean of 7-9, driven by warmer sea-surface temperatures and steering patterns favoring coastal approaches through the September peak. Upcoming model runs and CMA updates on August activity will likely influence whether the market-implied odds above 8 remain dominant.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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