Recent model ensembles and NOAA updates show the 2026 El Niño rapidly intensifying, with the latest weekly Niño 3.4 index at +2.7 °C and multi-model consensus pointing to a peak Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) near 3.1–3.6 °C. This positions the market’s “Over 2.5” bin as the leading outcome, driven by sustained equatorial Pacific warming that has already exceeded prior seasonal averages and carries a greater than 90 % probability of a very strong event through winter 2026-27. Forecasters note the event could surpass the previous RONI record of 2.69 °C set in 1982-83, though inherent spread across dynamical models and potential steering influences introduce residual uncertainty around exact peak magnitude and timing. Upcoming seasonal updates from the Climate Prediction Center and IRI will provide the next key data points for traders.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWhat will the peak RONI be for the 2026–27 El Niño?
What will the peak RONI be for the 2026–27 El Niño?
Over 2.5 40%
2.0–2.25 26.0%
2.25–2.5 24%
1.5–2.0 2.8%
NEW
NEW
Mar 31, 2027
Under 1.5
<1%
1.5–2.0
3%
2.0–2.25
26%
2.25–2.5
24%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 2.5 40%
2.0–2.25 26.0%
2.25–2.5 24%
1.5–2.0 2.8%
NEW
NEW
Mar 31, 2027
Under 1.5
$405 Vol.
<1%
1.5–2.0
$481 Vol.
3%
2.0–2.25
$973 Vol.
26%
2.25–2.5
$1,595 Vol.
24%
Over 2.5
$1,116 Vol.
40%
This market resolves "Yes" if the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño is below +1.5°C. Otherwise, it resolves "No".
The peak RONI is the single highest Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month seasons ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, and DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/).
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs resolution; no subsequent revision to a season's value will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published. If CPC's RONI dataset is permanently discontinued, other information from NOAA may be used.This market resolves "Yes" if the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño is at least +1.5°C and below +2.0°C. Otherwise, it resolves "No".
The peak RONI is the single highest Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month seasons ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, and DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/).
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs resolution; no subsequent revision to a season's value will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published. If CPC's RONI dataset is permanently discontinued, other information from NOAA may be used.This market resolves "Yes" if the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño is at least +2.0°C and below +2.25°C. Otherwise, it resolves "No".
The peak RONI is the single highest Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month seasons ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, and DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/).
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs resolution; no subsequent revision to a season's value will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published. If CPC's RONI dataset is permanently discontinued, other information from NOAA may be used.This market resolves "Yes" if the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño is at least +2.25°C and below +2.5°C. Otherwise, it resolves "No".
The peak RONI is the single highest Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month seasons ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, and DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/).
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs resolution; no subsequent revision to a season's value will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published. If CPC's RONI dataset is permanently discontinued, other information from NOAA may be used.This market resolves "Yes" if the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño is +2.5°C or above. Otherwise, it resolves "No". This market resolves "Yes" as soon as NOAA publishes a RONI value of +2.5°C or above for any listed season. If no listed season reaches +2.5°C, this market resolves "No" once NOAA has published the RONI value for DJF 2026-27.
The peak RONI is the single highest Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month seasons ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, and DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/).
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs resolution; no subsequent revision to a season's value will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published. If CPC's RONI dataset is permanently discontinued, other information from NOAA may be used.Recent model ensembles and NOAA updates show the 2026 El Niño rapidly intensifying, with the latest weekly Niño 3.4 index at +2.7 °C and multi-model consensus pointing to a peak Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) near 3.1–3.6 °C. This positions the market’s “Over 2.5” bin as the leading outcome, driven by sustained equatorial Pacific warming that has already exceeded prior seasonal averages and carries a greater than 90 % probability of a very strong event through winter 2026-27. Forecasters note the event could surpass the previous RONI record of 2.69 °C set in 1982-83, though inherent spread across dynamical models and potential steering influences introduce residual uncertainty around exact peak magnitude and timing. Upcoming seasonal updates from the Climate Prediction Center and IRI will provide the next key data points for traders.
This market resolves "Yes" if the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño is at least +2.0°C and below +2.25°C. Otherwise, it resolves "No".
The peak RONI is the single highest Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month seasons ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, and DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/).
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs resolution; no subsequent revision to a season's value will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published. If CPC's RONI dataset is permanently discontinued, other information from NOAA may be used.
The peak RONI is the single highest Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month seasons ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, and DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/).
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs resolution; no subsequent revision to a season's value will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published. If CPC's RONI dataset is permanently discontinued, other information from NOAA may be used.
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 3:17 PM ET
Volume
$4,569End Date
Apr 1, 2027Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 3:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market resolves "Yes" if the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño is below +1.5°C. Otherwise, it resolves "No".
The peak RONI is the single highest Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month seasons ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, and DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/).
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs resolution; no subsequent revision to a season's value will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published. If CPC's RONI dataset is permanently discontinued, other information from NOAA may be used.This market resolves "Yes" if the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño is at least +1.5°C and below +2.0°C. Otherwise, it resolves "No".
The peak RONI is the single highest Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month seasons ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, and DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/).
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs resolution; no subsequent revision to a season's value will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published. If CPC's RONI dataset is permanently discontinued, other information from NOAA may be used.This market resolves "Yes" if the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño is at least +2.0°C and below +2.25°C. Otherwise, it resolves "No".
The peak RONI is the single highest Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month seasons ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, and DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/).
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs resolution; no subsequent revision to a season's value will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published. If CPC's RONI dataset is permanently discontinued, other information from NOAA may be used.This market resolves "Yes" if the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño is at least +2.25°C and below +2.5°C. Otherwise, it resolves "No".
The peak RONI is the single highest Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month seasons ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, and DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/).
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs resolution; no subsequent revision to a season's value will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published. If CPC's RONI dataset is permanently discontinued, other information from NOAA may be used.This market resolves "Yes" if the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño is +2.5°C or above. Otherwise, it resolves "No". This market resolves "Yes" as soon as NOAA publishes a RONI value of +2.5°C or above for any listed season. If no listed season reaches +2.5°C, this market resolves "No" once NOAA has published the RONI value for DJF 2026-27.
The peak RONI is the single highest Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month seasons ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, and DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/).
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs resolution; no subsequent revision to a season's value will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published. If CPC's RONI dataset is permanently discontinued, other information from NOAA may be used.Recent model ensembles and NOAA updates show the 2026 El Niño rapidly intensifying, with the latest weekly Niño 3.4 index at +2.7 °C and multi-model consensus pointing to a peak Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) near 3.1–3.6 °C. This positions the market’s “Over 2.5” bin as the leading outcome, driven by sustained equatorial Pacific warming that has already exceeded prior seasonal averages and carries a greater than 90 % probability of a very strong event through winter 2026-27. Forecasters note the event could surpass the previous RONI record of 2.69 °C set in 1982-83, though inherent spread across dynamical models and potential steering influences introduce residual uncertainty around exact peak magnitude and timing. Upcoming seasonal updates from the Climate Prediction Center and IRI will provide the next key data points for traders.
This market resolves "Yes" if the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño is at least +2.0°C and below +2.25°C. Otherwise, it resolves "No".
The peak RONI is the single highest Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month seasons ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, and DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/).
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs resolution; no subsequent revision to a season's value will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published. If CPC's RONI dataset is permanently discontinued, other information from NOAA may be used.
The peak RONI is the single highest Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month seasons ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, and DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/).
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs resolution; no subsequent revision to a season's value will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published. If CPC's RONI dataset is permanently discontinued, other information from NOAA may be used.
Volume
$4,569End Date
Apr 1, 2027Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 3:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent model ensembles and NOAA updates show the 2026 El Niño rapidly intensifying, with the latest weekly Niño 3.4 index at +2.7 °C and multi-model consensus pointing to a peak Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) near 3.1–3.6 °C. This positions the market’s “Over 2.5” bin as the leading outcome, driven by sustained equatorial Pacific warming that has already exceeded prior seasonal averages and carries a greater than 90 % probability of a very strong event through winter 2026-27. Forecasters note the event could surpass the previous RONI record of 2.69 °C set in 1982-83, though inherent spread across dynamical models and potential steering influences introduce residual uncertainty around exact peak magnitude and timing. Upcoming seasonal updates from the Climate Prediction Center and IRI will provide the next key data points for traders.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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