Recent heavy rainfall in parts of the Rhine catchment and short-term hydrological forecasts have driven trader expectations for a rapid rebound above the 77 cm Kaub gauge threshold. Prolonged drought and repeated heatwaves through July and early August 2026 produced record-low flows at key gauges, sharply curtailing barge loads and disrupting commercial navigation. Modest precipitation gains in mid-August lifted readings several centimeters, with official outlooks indicating further near-term rises that could push levels over the navigability mark before month-end. Seasonal patterns and limited Alpine snowmelt continue to weigh on longer-term recovery, keeping later September and October intervals at single-digit probabilities while the “does not return by November” share remains minimal.