Prolonged drought and repeated heatwaves across much of Europe have driven Rhine water levels to record lows at key gauges such as Kaub, Cologne, and Lobith, severely restricting barge loads, raising freight costs, and disrupting inland shipping along one of the continent’s busiest commercial arteries. Recent modest rebounds, including a rise to 14 cm at Kaub in mid-August, combined with cooler temperatures and scattered rain in the forecast for late August, have strengthened trader expectations of a swift return to navigable or seasonally typical depths. Official waterway forecasts note that sustained precipitation is still required for fuller recovery, yet the market’s strong weighting toward resolution before September 1 reflects the view that short-term meteorological relief or seasonal normalization could quickly alleviate the most acute constraints.