El Niño conditions continue to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity through elevated wind shear and drier air, resulting in just three named storms—all tropical storms with no hurricanes—through August 23, 2026, and an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) of only 3.1, 86% below the 1991-2020 average. NOAA’s August update maintains a 75% probability of a below-normal season overall, forecasting 7-13 named storms, 2-6 hurricanes, and 0-2 major hurricanes for the full June-November period. Current National Hurricane Center monitoring focuses on eastern Atlantic tropical waves with marginal development odds, though steering patterns and shear favor recurvature away from the U.S. coast in the near term. Traders assessing landfall probabilities watch for shifts in model consensus during the climatological peak from mid-August through September, along with any rapid intensification signals or changes in sea-surface temperatures that could overcome the hostile environment.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWhere will a hurricane make landfall in the US during the 2026 hurricane season?
Where will a hurricane make landfall in the US during the 2026 hurricane season?
$11,539 Vol.
Dec 7, 2026
Texas
13%
Louisiana
13%
Mississippi
9%
Alabama
7%
Florida
39%
Georgia
9%
South Carolina
12%
North Carolina
19%
Virginia
6%
Maryland
9%
Delaware
11%
New Jersey
13%
New York
3%
Connecticut
3%
Rhode Island
10%
Massachusetts
12%
New Hampshire
7%
Maine
8%
Hawaii
12%
$11,539 Vol.
Texas
$88 Vol.
13%
Louisiana
$303 Vol.
13%
Mississippi
$321 Vol.
9%
Alabama
$704 Vol.
7%
Florida
$412 Vol.
39%
Georgia
$1,529 Vol.
9%
South Carolina
$282 Vol.
12%
North Carolina
$40 Vol.
19%
Virginia
$608 Vol.
6%
Maryland
$972 Vol.
9%
Delaware
$431 Vol.
11%
New Jersey
$42 Vol.
13%
New York
$780 Vol.
3%
Connecticut
$440 Vol.
3%
Rhode Island
$669 Vol.
10%
Massachusetts
$1,111 Vol.
12%
New Hampshire
$817 Vol.
7%
Maine
$1,586 Vol.
8%
Hawaii
$403 Vol.
12%
This market resolves based on whether a hurricane will make landfall in the state specified in the title between market creation and November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. A market resolves to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in that state within the timeframe, as described in official National Hurricane Center (NHC) advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/); for Hawaii, NOAA Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) advisories also apply. Otherwise, that market resolves to "No".
A hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL) and the NHC reports maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher (Category 1 or greater) at the time of landfall. The state of landfall is determined by the surface center's location when it crosses the coastline. If a single hurricane makes separate landfalls in more than one listed state, each such state resolves to "Yes".
Hurricane season runs from June 1, 2026 - November 30, 2026.
Each market resolves based on the initial NHC (or CPHC) advisory reporting a qualifying landfall in the relevant state, regardless of any later retraction or reanalysis. Each market may only resolve to "No" after November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, if an extension period applies, after December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
If an active tropical cyclone at hurricane strength is over water per official NHC or CPHC advisories as of 11:59 PM ET on November 30, 2026, the relevant market(s) will operate under an extension period of 7 days, and the resolution date will move to December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET; a qualifying landfall by that hurricane during the extension period will count toward resolution.
If a qualifying landfall occurs within a market's timeframe (including any extension period) but has not yet been confirmed by an NHC or CPHC advisory by the resolution date, that market will remain open until such an advisory is issued.El Niño conditions continue to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity through elevated wind shear and drier air, resulting in just three named storms—all tropical storms with no hurricanes—through August 23, 2026, and an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) of only 3.1, 86% below the 1991-2020 average. NOAA’s August update maintains a 75% probability of a below-normal season overall, forecasting 7-13 named storms, 2-6 hurricanes, and 0-2 major hurricanes for the full June-November period. Current National Hurricane Center monitoring focuses on eastern Atlantic tropical waves with marginal development odds, though steering patterns and shear favor recurvature away from the U.S. coast in the near term. Traders assessing landfall probabilities watch for shifts in model consensus during the climatological peak from mid-August through September, along with any rapid intensification signals or changes in sea-surface temperatures that could overcome the hostile environment.
This market resolves based on whether a hurricane will make landfall in the state specified in the title between market creation and November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. A market resolves to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in that state within the timeframe, as described in official National Hurricane Center (NHC) advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/); for Hawaii, NOAA Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) advisories also apply. Otherwise, that market resolves to "No".
A hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL) and the NHC reports maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher (Category 1 or greater) at the time of landfall. The state of landfall is determined by the surface center's location when it crosses the coastline. If a single hurricane makes separate landfalls in more than one listed state, each such state resolves to "Yes".
Hurricane season runs from June 1, 2026 - November 30, 2026.
Each market resolves based on the initial NHC (or CPHC) advisory reporting a qualifying landfall in the relevant state, regardless of any later retraction or reanalysis. Each market may only resolve to "No" after November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, if an extension period applies, after December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
If an active tropical cyclone at hurricane strength is over water per official NHC or CPHC advisories as of 11:59 PM ET on November 30, 2026, the relevant market(s) will operate under an extension period of 7 days, and the resolution date will move to December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET; a qualifying landfall by that hurricane during the extension period will count toward resolution.
If a qualifying landfall occurs within a market's timeframe (including any extension period) but has not yet been confirmed by an NHC or CPHC advisory by the resolution date, that market will remain open until such an advisory is issued.
A hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL) and the NHC reports maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher (Category 1 or greater) at the time of landfall. The state of landfall is determined by the surface center's location when it crosses the coastline. If a single hurricane makes separate landfalls in more than one listed state, each such state resolves to "Yes".
Hurricane season runs from June 1, 2026 - November 30, 2026.
Each market resolves based on the initial NHC (or CPHC) advisory reporting a qualifying landfall in the relevant state, regardless of any later retraction or reanalysis. Each market may only resolve to "No" after November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, if an extension period applies, after December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
If an active tropical cyclone at hurricane strength is over water per official NHC or CPHC advisories as of 11:59 PM ET on November 30, 2026, the relevant market(s) will operate under an extension period of 7 days, and the resolution date will move to December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET; a qualifying landfall by that hurricane during the extension period will count toward resolution.
If a qualifying landfall occurs within a market's timeframe (including any extension period) but has not yet been confirmed by an NHC or CPHC advisory by the resolution date, that market will remain open until such an advisory is issued.
Market Opened: Aug 18, 2026, 4:30 PM ET
Volume
$11,539End Date
Dec 8, 2026Market Opened
Aug 18, 2026, 4:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market resolves based on whether a hurricane will make landfall in the state specified in the title between market creation and November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. A market resolves to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in that state within the timeframe, as described in official National Hurricane Center (NHC) advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/); for Hawaii, NOAA Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) advisories also apply. Otherwise, that market resolves to "No".
A hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL) and the NHC reports maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher (Category 1 or greater) at the time of landfall. The state of landfall is determined by the surface center's location when it crosses the coastline. If a single hurricane makes separate landfalls in more than one listed state, each such state resolves to "Yes".
Hurricane season runs from June 1, 2026 - November 30, 2026.
Each market resolves based on the initial NHC (or CPHC) advisory reporting a qualifying landfall in the relevant state, regardless of any later retraction or reanalysis. Each market may only resolve to "No" after November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, if an extension period applies, after December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
If an active tropical cyclone at hurricane strength is over water per official NHC or CPHC advisories as of 11:59 PM ET on November 30, 2026, the relevant market(s) will operate under an extension period of 7 days, and the resolution date will move to December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET; a qualifying landfall by that hurricane during the extension period will count toward resolution.
If a qualifying landfall occurs within a market's timeframe (including any extension period) but has not yet been confirmed by an NHC or CPHC advisory by the resolution date, that market will remain open until such an advisory is issued.El Niño conditions continue to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity through elevated wind shear and drier air, resulting in just three named storms—all tropical storms with no hurricanes—through August 23, 2026, and an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) of only 3.1, 86% below the 1991-2020 average. NOAA’s August update maintains a 75% probability of a below-normal season overall, forecasting 7-13 named storms, 2-6 hurricanes, and 0-2 major hurricanes for the full June-November period. Current National Hurricane Center monitoring focuses on eastern Atlantic tropical waves with marginal development odds, though steering patterns and shear favor recurvature away from the U.S. coast in the near term. Traders assessing landfall probabilities watch for shifts in model consensus during the climatological peak from mid-August through September, along with any rapid intensification signals or changes in sea-surface temperatures that could overcome the hostile environment.
This market resolves based on whether a hurricane will make landfall in the state specified in the title between market creation and November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. A market resolves to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in that state within the timeframe, as described in official National Hurricane Center (NHC) advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/); for Hawaii, NOAA Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) advisories also apply. Otherwise, that market resolves to "No".
A hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL) and the NHC reports maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher (Category 1 or greater) at the time of landfall. The state of landfall is determined by the surface center's location when it crosses the coastline. If a single hurricane makes separate landfalls in more than one listed state, each such state resolves to "Yes".
Hurricane season runs from June 1, 2026 - November 30, 2026.
Each market resolves based on the initial NHC (or CPHC) advisory reporting a qualifying landfall in the relevant state, regardless of any later retraction or reanalysis. Each market may only resolve to "No" after November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, if an extension period applies, after December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
If an active tropical cyclone at hurricane strength is over water per official NHC or CPHC advisories as of 11:59 PM ET on November 30, 2026, the relevant market(s) will operate under an extension period of 7 days, and the resolution date will move to December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET; a qualifying landfall by that hurricane during the extension period will count toward resolution.
If a qualifying landfall occurs within a market's timeframe (including any extension period) but has not yet been confirmed by an NHC or CPHC advisory by the resolution date, that market will remain open until such an advisory is issued.
A hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL) and the NHC reports maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher (Category 1 or greater) at the time of landfall. The state of landfall is determined by the surface center's location when it crosses the coastline. If a single hurricane makes separate landfalls in more than one listed state, each such state resolves to "Yes".
Hurricane season runs from June 1, 2026 - November 30, 2026.
Each market resolves based on the initial NHC (or CPHC) advisory reporting a qualifying landfall in the relevant state, regardless of any later retraction or reanalysis. Each market may only resolve to "No" after November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, if an extension period applies, after December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
If an active tropical cyclone at hurricane strength is over water per official NHC or CPHC advisories as of 11:59 PM ET on November 30, 2026, the relevant market(s) will operate under an extension period of 7 days, and the resolution date will move to December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET; a qualifying landfall by that hurricane during the extension period will count toward resolution.
If a qualifying landfall occurs within a market's timeframe (including any extension period) but has not yet been confirmed by an NHC or CPHC advisory by the resolution date, that market will remain open until such an advisory is issued.
Volume
$11,539End Date
Dec 8, 2026Market Opened
Aug 18, 2026, 4:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Resolver
0x65070BE91...El Niño conditions continue to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity through elevated wind shear and drier air, resulting in just three named storms—all tropical storms with no hurricanes—through August 23, 2026, and an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) of only 3.1, 86% below the 1991-2020 average. NOAA’s August update maintains a 75% probability of a below-normal season overall, forecasting 7-13 named storms, 2-6 hurricanes, and 0-2 major hurricanes for the full June-November period. Current National Hurricane Center monitoring focuses on eastern Atlantic tropical waves with marginal development odds, though steering patterns and shear favor recurvature away from the U.S. coast in the near term. Traders assessing landfall probabilities watch for shifts in model consensus during the climatological peak from mid-August through September, along with any rapid intensification signals or changes in sea-surface temperatures that could overcome the hostile environment.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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