**Strong scientific consensus supports the 93.8% market-implied probability of no magnitude 9.0 or greater earthquake before 2027, driven by the extreme rarity of such megathrust events.** USGS historical records document only a handful of M9+ quakes since 1900, with the most recent being the 2011 Tohoku event; an 8.8 occurred in Kamchatka in 2025, but no higher-magnitude activity has followed. These require simultaneous rupture across hundreds of kilometers on major subduction zones, and current USGS monitoring shows no anomalous strain accumulation or precursors in high-risk regions like Cascadia or southern Chile. Recurrence intervals typically span decades, making the remaining months of 2026 statistically unfavorable. A realistic challenge could arise from unexpected geodetic signals or rapid stress transfer in monitored zones, though no such indicators are evident.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
6% chance
$307,359 Vol.
$307,359 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
6% chance
$307,359 Vol.
$307,359 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.**Strong scientific consensus supports the 93.8% market-implied probability of no magnitude 9.0 or greater earthquake before 2027, driven by the extreme rarity of such megathrust events.** USGS historical records document only a handful of M9+ quakes since 1900, with the most recent being the 2011 Tohoku event; an 8.8 occurred in Kamchatka in 2025, but no higher-magnitude activity has followed. These require simultaneous rupture across hundreds of kilometers on major subduction zones, and current USGS monitoring shows no anomalous strain accumulation or precursors in high-risk regions like Cascadia or southern Chile. Recurrence intervals typically span decades, making the remaining months of 2026 statistically unfavorable. A realistic challenge could arise from unexpected geodetic signals or rapid stress transfer in monitored zones, though no such indicators are evident.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Market Opened: Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ET
Volume
$307,359End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.**Strong scientific consensus supports the 93.8% market-implied probability of no magnitude 9.0 or greater earthquake before 2027, driven by the extreme rarity of such megathrust events.** USGS historical records document only a handful of M9+ quakes since 1900, with the most recent being the 2011 Tohoku event; an 8.8 occurred in Kamchatka in 2025, but no higher-magnitude activity has followed. These require simultaneous rupture across hundreds of kilometers on major subduction zones, and current USGS monitoring shows no anomalous strain accumulation or precursors in high-risk regions like Cascadia or southern Chile. Recurrence intervals typically span decades, making the remaining months of 2026 statistically unfavorable. A realistic challenge could arise from unexpected geodetic signals or rapid stress transfer in monitored zones, though no such indicators are evident.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$307,359End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Strong scientific consensus supports the 93.8% market-implied probability of no magnitude 9.0 or greater earthquake before 2027, driven by the extreme rarity of such megathrust events.** USGS historical records document only a handful of M9+ quakes since 1900, with the most recent being the 2011 Tohoku event; an 8.8 occurred in Kamchatka in 2025, but no higher-magnitude activity has followed. These require simultaneous rupture across hundreds of kilometers on major subduction zones, and current USGS monitoring shows no anomalous strain accumulation or precursors in high-risk regions like Cascadia or southern Chile. Recurrence intervals typically span decades, making the remaining months of 2026 statistically unfavorable. A realistic challenge could arise from unexpected geodetic signals or rapid stress transfer in monitored zones, though no such indicators are evident.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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