Recent AEMET and ensemble model guidance shows a cooling trend driven by increased southwesterly flow and partial cloud cover, with a 20–30% chance of scattered showers or thunderstorms expected to limit solar heating on August 24. This follows recent daytime highs near 33°C and positions 27–28°C as the most probable maximum range, aligning with Met Office forecasts of 27°C. Traders appear to be weighting these outcomes heavily because the incoming maritime air mass and reduced insolation create a narrow window for the thermal peak, while historical August baselines in Madrid average around 31°C. Updated model runs and official briefings in the next 24 hours will refine the exact threshold.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Madrid on August 24?
Highest temperature in Madrid on August 24?
27°C 52%
28°C 30%
26°C 10%
29°C 7%
NEW
$21,683 Vol.
NEW
$21,683 Vol.
Aug 24, 2026
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
1%
25°C
1%
26°C
10%
27°C
52%
28°C
30%
29°C
7%
30°C
4%
31°C
1%
32°C
<1%
33°C or higher
<1%
27°C 52%
28°C 30%
26°C 10%
29°C 7%
NEW
$21,683 Vol.
NEW
$21,683 Vol.
Aug 24, 2026
23°C or below
$392 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$769 Vol.
1%
25°C
$922 Vol.
1%
26°C
$2,324 Vol.
10%
27°C
$4,182 Vol.
52%
28°C
$5,644 Vol.
30%
29°C
$4,174 Vol.
7%
30°C
$1,696 Vol.
4%
31°C
$437 Vol.
1%
32°C
$494 Vol.
<1%
33°C or higher
$650 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent AEMET and ensemble model guidance shows a cooling trend driven by increased southwesterly flow and partial cloud cover, with a 20–30% chance of scattered showers or thunderstorms expected to limit solar heating on August 24. This follows recent daytime highs near 33°C and positions 27–28°C as the most probable maximum range, aligning with Met Office forecasts of 27°C. Traders appear to be weighting these outcomes heavily because the incoming maritime air mass and reduced insolation create a narrow window for the thermal peak, while historical August baselines in Madrid average around 31°C. Updated model runs and official briefings in the next 24 hours will refine the exact threshold.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 22, 2026, 1:56 AM ET
Volume
$21,683End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 1:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent AEMET and ensemble model guidance shows a cooling trend driven by increased southwesterly flow and partial cloud cover, with a 20–30% chance of scattered showers or thunderstorms expected to limit solar heating on August 24. This follows recent daytime highs near 33°C and positions 27–28°C as the most probable maximum range, aligning with Met Office forecasts of 27°C. Traders appear to be weighting these outcomes heavily because the incoming maritime air mass and reduced insolation create a narrow window for the thermal peak, while historical August baselines in Madrid average around 31°C. Updated model runs and official briefings in the next 24 hours will refine the exact threshold.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$21,683End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 1:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent AEMET and ensemble model guidance shows a cooling trend driven by increased southwesterly flow and partial cloud cover, with a 20–30% chance of scattered showers or thunderstorms expected to limit solar heating on August 24. This follows recent daytime highs near 33°C and positions 27–28°C as the most probable maximum range, aligning with Met Office forecasts of 27°C. Traders appear to be weighting these outcomes heavily because the incoming maritime air mass and reduced insolation create a narrow window for the thermal peak, while historical August baselines in Madrid average around 31°C. Updated model runs and official briefings in the next 24 hours will refine the exact threshold.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions