A recent cold front advancing across southeastern Brazil has suppressed temperatures in São Paulo, anchoring official model consensus from agencies like INMET around a daily maximum near 23–24°C for August 23. This aligns with the market's heavy weighting toward 24°C at 70% implied probability, reflecting the typical winter baseline of 22–25°C highs under high-pressure influence and limited moisture. Ensemble forecasts show minimal warming potential today due to persistent southeasterly flow and cloud cover moderating daytime peaks, while historical August averages near 23°C provide additional context for the narrow clustering of trader sentiment. Updated short-range model runs later today will refine exact maxima ahead of official recording.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Sao Paulo on August 23?
Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on August 23?
24°C 72%
23°C 21%
25°C 5%
26°C 4%
$9,933 Vol.
$9,933 Vol.
Aug 23, 2026
20°C or below
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
21%
24°C
69%
25°C
5%
26°C
4%
27°C
2%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C or higher
<1%
24°C 72%
23°C 21%
25°C 5%
26°C 4%
$9,933 Vol.
$9,933 Vol.
Aug 23, 2026
20°C or below
$430 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$703 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$1,409 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$1,881 Vol.
21%
24°C
$1,074 Vol.
69%
25°C
$1,726 Vol.
5%
26°C
$928 Vol.
4%
27°C
$235 Vol.
2%
28°C
$312 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$300 Vol.
<1%
30°C or higher
$936 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.A recent cold front advancing across southeastern Brazil has suppressed temperatures in São Paulo, anchoring official model consensus from agencies like INMET around a daily maximum near 23–24°C for August 23. This aligns with the market's heavy weighting toward 24°C at 70% implied probability, reflecting the typical winter baseline of 22–25°C highs under high-pressure influence and limited moisture. Ensemble forecasts show minimal warming potential today due to persistent southeasterly flow and cloud cover moderating daytime peaks, while historical August averages near 23°C provide additional context for the narrow clustering of trader sentiment. Updated short-range model runs later today will refine exact maxima ahead of official recording.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 21, 2026, 11:55 PM ET
Volume
$9,933End Date
Aug 23, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 11:55 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.A recent cold front advancing across southeastern Brazil has suppressed temperatures in São Paulo, anchoring official model consensus from agencies like INMET around a daily maximum near 23–24°C for August 23. This aligns with the market's heavy weighting toward 24°C at 70% implied probability, reflecting the typical winter baseline of 22–25°C highs under high-pressure influence and limited moisture. Ensemble forecasts show minimal warming potential today due to persistent southeasterly flow and cloud cover moderating daytime peaks, while historical August averages near 23°C provide additional context for the narrow clustering of trader sentiment. Updated short-range model runs later today will refine exact maxima ahead of official recording.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$9,933End Date
Aug 23, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 11:55 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...A recent cold front advancing across southeastern Brazil has suppressed temperatures in São Paulo, anchoring official model consensus from agencies like INMET around a daily maximum near 23–24°C for August 23. This aligns with the market's heavy weighting toward 24°C at 70% implied probability, reflecting the typical winter baseline of 22–25°C highs under high-pressure influence and limited moisture. Ensemble forecasts show minimal warming potential today due to persistent southeasterly flow and cloud cover moderating daytime peaks, while historical August averages near 23°C provide additional context for the narrow clustering of trader sentiment. Updated short-range model runs later today will refine exact maxima ahead of official recording.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions