A cold front advancing from southern Brazil has driven the sharp temperature drop in São Paulo on August 23, 2026, with official INMET and regional forecasts highlighting enhanced advection of cooler polar air masses and stronger nighttime radiative cooling under partly clear skies. This setup favors minimum temperatures clustering near 13–14°C, aligning with the market’s leading 14°C (59%) and 13°C (41.5%) outcomes, while model runs showing localized pockets of clearer, calmer conditions support the 9°C (44.5%) probability. Recent pre-frontal warming through August 20–21 raised baselines above seasonal norms before the front’s arrival accelerated cooling, consistent with historical winter cold-surge patterns. Traders are weighing forecast spread from agencies like INMET against urban heat-island moderation and wind mixing, with resolution hinging on the precise overnight low recorded at official stations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Sao Paulo on August 23?
Lowest temperature in Sao Paulo on August 23?
9°C 86%
13°C 42%
11°C 6%
10°C 5%
$1,051 Vol.
$1,051 Vol.
Aug 23, 2026
8°C or below
1%
9°C
86%
10°C
5%
11°C
6%
12°C
4%
13°C
42%
14°C
59%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C or higher
<1%
9°C 86%
13°C 42%
11°C 6%
10°C 5%
$1,051 Vol.
$1,051 Vol.
Aug 23, 2026
8°C or below
$20 Vol.
1%
9°C
$5 Vol.
86%
10°C
$5 Vol.
5%
11°C
$4 Vol.
6%
12°C
$20 Vol.
4%
13°C
$0 Vol.
42%
14°C
$21 Vol.
59%
15°C
$90 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$590 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$115 Vol.
<1%
18°C or higher
$181 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.A cold front advancing from southern Brazil has driven the sharp temperature drop in São Paulo on August 23, 2026, with official INMET and regional forecasts highlighting enhanced advection of cooler polar air masses and stronger nighttime radiative cooling under partly clear skies. This setup favors minimum temperatures clustering near 13–14°C, aligning with the market’s leading 14°C (59%) and 13°C (41.5%) outcomes, while model runs showing localized pockets of clearer, calmer conditions support the 9°C (44.5%) probability. Recent pre-frontal warming through August 20–21 raised baselines above seasonal norms before the front’s arrival accelerated cooling, consistent with historical winter cold-surge patterns. Traders are weighing forecast spread from agencies like INMET against urban heat-island moderation and wind mixing, with resolution hinging on the precise overnight low recorded at official stations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 22, 2026, 12:28 AM ET
Volume
$1,051End Date
Aug 23, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 12:28 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.A cold front advancing from southern Brazil has driven the sharp temperature drop in São Paulo on August 23, 2026, with official INMET and regional forecasts highlighting enhanced advection of cooler polar air masses and stronger nighttime radiative cooling under partly clear skies. This setup favors minimum temperatures clustering near 13–14°C, aligning with the market’s leading 14°C (59%) and 13°C (41.5%) outcomes, while model runs showing localized pockets of clearer, calmer conditions support the 9°C (44.5%) probability. Recent pre-frontal warming through August 20–21 raised baselines above seasonal norms before the front’s arrival accelerated cooling, consistent with historical winter cold-surge patterns. Traders are weighing forecast spread from agencies like INMET against urban heat-island moderation and wind mixing, with resolution hinging on the precise overnight low recorded at official stations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,051End Date
Aug 23, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 12:28 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...A cold front advancing from southern Brazil has driven the sharp temperature drop in São Paulo on August 23, 2026, with official INMET and regional forecasts highlighting enhanced advection of cooler polar air masses and stronger nighttime radiative cooling under partly clear skies. This setup favors minimum temperatures clustering near 13–14°C, aligning with the market’s leading 14°C (59%) and 13°C (41.5%) outcomes, while model runs showing localized pockets of clearer, calmer conditions support the 9°C (44.5%) probability. Recent pre-frontal warming through August 20–21 raised baselines above seasonal norms before the front’s arrival accelerated cooling, consistent with historical winter cold-surge patterns. Traders are weighing forecast spread from agencies like INMET against urban heat-island moderation and wind mixing, with resolution hinging on the precise overnight low recorded at official stations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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