Recent Hong Kong Observatory guidance and ensemble models point to typical late-August conditions with overnight lows near 27°C, driving the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 26–28°C. High humidity, potential cloud cover from a lingering South China Sea trough, and possible showers limit nighttime radiative cooling, keeping minimum temperatures from falling below seasonal norms despite the broader normal-to-above-normal temperature outlook. Short-range forecast updates over the next 48 hours will refine these details, particularly any changes in wind or precipitation that could shift the diurnal range by 1–2°C. Traders are weighting climatological baselines and latest model consensus more heavily than longer-term seasonal signals.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 25?
Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 25?
27°C 31%
28°C 30%
26°C 22%
29°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
23°C or below
1%
24°C
2%
25°C
7%
26°C
22%
27°C
31%
28°C
30%
29°C
8%
30°C
<1%
31°C
2%
32°C
<1%
33°C or higher
<1%
27°C 31%
28°C 30%
26°C 22%
29°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
23°C or below
$146 Vol.
1%
24°C
$350 Vol.
2%
25°C
$117 Vol.
7%
26°C
$0 Vol.
22%
27°C
$194 Vol.
31%
28°C
$64 Vol.
30%
29°C
$617 Vol.
8%
30°C
$91 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$223 Vol.
2%
32°C
$219 Vol.
<1%
33°C or higher
$135 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Hong Kong Observatory guidance and ensemble models point to typical late-August conditions with overnight lows near 27°C, driving the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 26–28°C. High humidity, potential cloud cover from a lingering South China Sea trough, and possible showers limit nighttime radiative cooling, keeping minimum temperatures from falling below seasonal norms despite the broader normal-to-above-normal temperature outlook. Short-range forecast updates over the next 48 hours will refine these details, particularly any changes in wind or precipitation that could shift the diurnal range by 1–2°C. Traders are weighting climatological baselines and latest model consensus more heavily than longer-term seasonal signals.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Aug 23, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$2,156End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Hong Kong Observatory guidance and ensemble models point to typical late-August conditions with overnight lows near 27°C, driving the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 26–28°C. High humidity, potential cloud cover from a lingering South China Sea trough, and possible showers limit nighttime radiative cooling, keeping minimum temperatures from falling below seasonal norms despite the broader normal-to-above-normal temperature outlook. Short-range forecast updates over the next 48 hours will refine these details, particularly any changes in wind or precipitation that could shift the diurnal range by 1–2°C. Traders are weighting climatological baselines and latest model consensus more heavily than longer-term seasonal signals.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$2,156End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Hong Kong Observatory guidance and ensemble models point to typical late-August conditions with overnight lows near 27°C, driving the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 26–28°C. High humidity, potential cloud cover from a lingering South China Sea trough, and possible showers limit nighttime radiative cooling, keeping minimum temperatures from falling below seasonal norms despite the broader normal-to-above-normal temperature outlook. Short-range forecast updates over the next 48 hours will refine these details, particularly any changes in wind or precipitation that could shift the diurnal range by 1–2°C. Traders are weighting climatological baselines and latest model consensus more heavily than longer-term seasonal signals.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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