Trader sentiment reflects high uncertainty in short-term model guidance for São Paulo’s overnight minimum on August 24, with 13–15°C contracts nearly tied near 30% each. Recent INMET and CPTEC forecasts indicate a typical winter pattern under the influence of the South Atlantic subtropical high, with light winds and variable cloud cover that modulates radiative cooling rates at the Mirante de Santana station. Recent mid-August observations recorded daily lows of 12–13°C, while increased cloudiness and possible isolated showers on the 24th could limit further cooling below 13°C. Model spreads arise mainly from differences in predicted boundary-layer mixing and dew-point depression; clearer skies would favor the lower tail while persistent stratus would support the 14–15°C cluster. Final resolution hinges on the official INMET daily minimum, with the next model runs and evening sounding updates likely to sharpen the distribution before the observation window closes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Sao Paulo on August 24?
Lowest temperature in Sao Paulo on August 24?
19°C or higher 58%
14°C 33%
13°C 31%
15°C 30%
NEW
NEW
Aug 24, 2026
9°C or below
1%
10°C
2%
11°C
25%
12°C
28%
13°C
31%
14°C
33%
15°C
30%
16°C
24%
17°C
1%
18°C
8%
19°C or higher
58%
19°C or higher 58%
14°C 33%
13°C 31%
15°C 30%
NEW
NEW
Aug 24, 2026
9°C or below
$65 Vol.
1%
10°C
$74 Vol.
2%
11°C
$3 Vol.
25%
12°C
$2 Vol.
28%
13°C
$0 Vol.
31%
14°C
$0 Vol.
33%
15°C
$0 Vol.
30%
16°C
$0 Vol.
24%
17°C
$90 Vol.
1%
18°C
$55 Vol.
8%
19°C or higher
$60 Vol.
58%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader sentiment reflects high uncertainty in short-term model guidance for São Paulo’s overnight minimum on August 24, with 13–15°C contracts nearly tied near 30% each. Recent INMET and CPTEC forecasts indicate a typical winter pattern under the influence of the South Atlantic subtropical high, with light winds and variable cloud cover that modulates radiative cooling rates at the Mirante de Santana station. Recent mid-August observations recorded daily lows of 12–13°C, while increased cloudiness and possible isolated showers on the 24th could limit further cooling below 13°C. Model spreads arise mainly from differences in predicted boundary-layer mixing and dew-point depression; clearer skies would favor the lower tail while persistent stratus would support the 14–15°C cluster. Final resolution hinges on the official INMET daily minimum, with the next model runs and evening sounding updates likely to sharpen the distribution before the observation window closes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 22, 2026, 9:28 PM ET
Volume
$349End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 9:28 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader sentiment reflects high uncertainty in short-term model guidance for São Paulo’s overnight minimum on August 24, with 13–15°C contracts nearly tied near 30% each. Recent INMET and CPTEC forecasts indicate a typical winter pattern under the influence of the South Atlantic subtropical high, with light winds and variable cloud cover that modulates radiative cooling rates at the Mirante de Santana station. Recent mid-August observations recorded daily lows of 12–13°C, while increased cloudiness and possible isolated showers on the 24th could limit further cooling below 13°C. Model spreads arise mainly from differences in predicted boundary-layer mixing and dew-point depression; clearer skies would favor the lower tail while persistent stratus would support the 14–15°C cluster. Final resolution hinges on the official INMET daily minimum, with the next model runs and evening sounding updates likely to sharpen the distribution before the observation window closes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$349End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 9:28 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment reflects high uncertainty in short-term model guidance for São Paulo’s overnight minimum on August 24, with 13–15°C contracts nearly tied near 30% each. Recent INMET and CPTEC forecasts indicate a typical winter pattern under the influence of the South Atlantic subtropical high, with light winds and variable cloud cover that modulates radiative cooling rates at the Mirante de Santana station. Recent mid-August observations recorded daily lows of 12–13°C, while increased cloudiness and possible isolated showers on the 24th could limit further cooling below 13°C. Model spreads arise mainly from differences in predicted boundary-layer mixing and dew-point depression; clearer skies would favor the lower tail while persistent stratus would support the 14–15°C cluster. Final resolution hinges on the official INMET daily minimum, with the next model runs and evening sounding updates likely to sharpen the distribution before the observation window closes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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