Recent global and regional forecast models converge on a Chengdu maximum temperature of 34–36°C for August 24, reflecting the tightly bunched market-implied odds and inherent ensemble spread. The Sichuan Basin’s topography, combined with lingering East Asian monsoon moisture and variable low-level winds, modulates afternoon cloud cover and solar heating, creating the narrow uncertainty band between these outcomes. Historical August climatology shows typical highs near 32–34°C, but current conditions favor modest warming above baseline. Official China Meteorological Administration updates and next model runs will refine the precise peak, with traders closely tracking any shifts in convective timing or basin ventilation that could push the reading lower or allow brief clearing for a higher maximum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Chengdu on August 24?
Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 24?
35°C 30%
36°C 28%
34°C 19%
37°C 13%
NEW
$15,190 Vol.
NEW
$15,190 Vol.
Aug 24, 2026
28°C or below
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
1%
32°C
4%
33°C
10%
34°C
19%
35°C
30%
36°C
28%
37°C
13%
38°C or higher
1%
35°C 30%
36°C 28%
34°C 19%
37°C 13%
NEW
$15,190 Vol.
NEW
$15,190 Vol.
Aug 24, 2026
28°C or below
$365 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$462 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$690 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$242 Vol.
1%
32°C
$794 Vol.
4%
33°C
$1,826 Vol.
10%
34°C
$2,400 Vol.
19%
35°C
$1,795 Vol.
30%
36°C
$1,698 Vol.
28%
37°C
$1,662 Vol.
13%
38°C or higher
$3,256 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent global and regional forecast models converge on a Chengdu maximum temperature of 34–36°C for August 24, reflecting the tightly bunched market-implied odds and inherent ensemble spread. The Sichuan Basin’s topography, combined with lingering East Asian monsoon moisture and variable low-level winds, modulates afternoon cloud cover and solar heating, creating the narrow uncertainty band between these outcomes. Historical August climatology shows typical highs near 32–34°C, but current conditions favor modest warming above baseline. Official China Meteorological Administration updates and next model runs will refine the precise peak, with traders closely tracking any shifts in convective timing or basin ventilation that could push the reading lower or allow brief clearing for a higher maximum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 22, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$15,190End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuuResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent global and regional forecast models converge on a Chengdu maximum temperature of 34–36°C for August 24, reflecting the tightly bunched market-implied odds and inherent ensemble spread. The Sichuan Basin’s topography, combined with lingering East Asian monsoon moisture and variable low-level winds, modulates afternoon cloud cover and solar heating, creating the narrow uncertainty band between these outcomes. Historical August climatology shows typical highs near 32–34°C, but current conditions favor modest warming above baseline. Official China Meteorological Administration updates and next model runs will refine the precise peak, with traders closely tracking any shifts in convective timing or basin ventilation that could push the reading lower or allow brief clearing for a higher maximum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$15,190End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuuResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent global and regional forecast models converge on a Chengdu maximum temperature of 34–36°C for August 24, reflecting the tightly bunched market-implied odds and inherent ensemble spread. The Sichuan Basin’s topography, combined with lingering East Asian monsoon moisture and variable low-level winds, modulates afternoon cloud cover and solar heating, creating the narrow uncertainty band between these outcomes. Historical August climatology shows typical highs near 32–34°C, but current conditions favor modest warming above baseline. Official China Meteorological Administration updates and next model runs will refine the precise peak, with traders closely tracking any shifts in convective timing or basin ventilation that could push the reading lower or allow brief clearing for a higher maximum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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