**Persistent cloud cover, widespread rain, and high-altitude moderation are the dominant factors capping daytime heating in Mexico City on August 24.** Official forecasts from multiple sources (including NHC/NOAA-aligned models and local stations) show highs clustered between roughly 18–21 °C amid the ongoing rainy season, with 80–90 % chances of thunderstorms and overcast skies suppressing insolation. Mexico City’s 2,240 m elevation already limits peak temperatures relative to sea-level sites; combined with moist northeasterly flow and afternoon convection, this keeps the market-implied distribution tightly bunched around 19–21 °C. Recent days have featured similar conditions, with observed maxima in the low-to-mid 20 °C range but trending cooler under heavy cloud. Traders therefore assign the highest probabilities to 20 °C (35 %) and 21 °C (30.5 %), with 19 °C a close third, reflecting genuine uncertainty in exact rainfall timing and cloud persistence rather than model disagreement on the overall cool pattern. Newer model runs or clearer skies could shift resolution criteria, but current guidance favors the lower end of the distribution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Mexico City on August 24?
Highest temperature in Mexico City on August 24?
20°C 35%
19°C 23%
21°C 23%
18°C 9%
NEW
NEW
Aug 24, 2026
15°C or below
<1%
16°C
1%
17°C
2%
18°C
9%
19°C
23%
20°C
35%
21°C
23%
22°C
5%
23°C
4%
24°C
1%
25°C or higher
<1%
20°C 35%
19°C 23%
21°C 23%
18°C 9%
NEW
NEW
Aug 24, 2026
15°C or below
$135 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$5 Vol.
1%
17°C
$47 Vol.
2%
18°C
$238 Vol.
9%
19°C
$438 Vol.
23%
20°C
$453 Vol.
35%
21°C
$537 Vol.
23%
22°C
$424 Vol.
5%
23°C
$140 Vol.
4%
24°C
$110 Vol.
1%
25°C or higher
$190 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Persistent cloud cover, widespread rain, and high-altitude moderation are the dominant factors capping daytime heating in Mexico City on August 24.** Official forecasts from multiple sources (including NHC/NOAA-aligned models and local stations) show highs clustered between roughly 18–21 °C amid the ongoing rainy season, with 80–90 % chances of thunderstorms and overcast skies suppressing insolation.
Mexico City’s 2,240 m elevation already limits peak temperatures relative to sea-level sites; combined with moist northeasterly flow and afternoon convection, this keeps the market-implied distribution tightly bunched around 19–21 °C. Recent days have featured similar conditions, with observed maxima in the low-to-mid 20 °C range but trending cooler under heavy cloud.
Traders therefore assign the highest probabilities to 20 °C (35 %) and 21 °C (30.5 %), with 19 °C a close third, reflecting genuine uncertainty in exact rainfall timing and cloud persistence rather than model disagreement on the overall cool pattern. Newer model runs or clearer skies could shift resolution criteria, but current guidance favors the lower end of the distribution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 22, 2026, 8:57 PM ET
Volume
$2,714End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 8:57 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmxResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Persistent cloud cover, widespread rain, and high-altitude moderation are the dominant factors capping daytime heating in Mexico City on August 24.** Official forecasts from multiple sources (including NHC/NOAA-aligned models and local stations) show highs clustered between roughly 18–21 °C amid the ongoing rainy season, with 80–90 % chances of thunderstorms and overcast skies suppressing insolation.
Mexico City’s 2,240 m elevation already limits peak temperatures relative to sea-level sites; combined with moist northeasterly flow and afternoon convection, this keeps the market-implied distribution tightly bunched around 19–21 °C. Recent days have featured similar conditions, with observed maxima in the low-to-mid 20 °C range but trending cooler under heavy cloud.
Traders therefore assign the highest probabilities to 20 °C (35 %) and 21 °C (30.5 %), with 19 °C a close third, reflecting genuine uncertainty in exact rainfall timing and cloud persistence rather than model disagreement on the overall cool pattern. Newer model runs or clearer skies could shift resolution criteria, but current guidance favors the lower end of the distribution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,714End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 8:57 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmxResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Persistent cloud cover, widespread rain, and high-altitude moderation are the dominant factors capping daytime heating in Mexico City on August 24.** Official forecasts from multiple sources (including NHC/NOAA-aligned models and local stations) show highs clustered between roughly 18–21 °C amid the ongoing rainy season, with 80–90 % chances of thunderstorms and overcast skies suppressing insolation. Mexico City’s 2,240 m elevation already limits peak temperatures relative to sea-level sites; combined with moist northeasterly flow and afternoon convection, this keeps the market-implied distribution tightly bunched around 19–21 °C. Recent days have featured similar conditions, with observed maxima in the low-to-mid 20 °C range but trending cooler under heavy cloud. Traders therefore assign the highest probabilities to 20 °C (35 %) and 21 °C (30.5 %), with 19 °C a close third, reflecting genuine uncertainty in exact rainfall timing and cloud persistence rather than model disagreement on the overall cool pattern. Newer model runs or clearer skies could shift resolution criteria, but current guidance favors the lower end of the distribution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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