European ensemble models and official forecasts from agencies like the DWD converge on a 23–24°C daily maximum in Munich for August 24, driven by post-frontal stabilization, modest daytime heating under partly cloudy skies, and prevailing westerly flow limiting further warming. These conditions align with historical late-August baselines for the region after recent frontal passages, producing the market’s strong implied probabilities for 24°C and 23°C. Fresh model runs and observational updates over the next 24 hours will determine any shifts in the peak temperature.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Munich on August 24?
24°C 51%
23°C 24%
25°C 14%
22°C 11%
$11,878 Vol.
$11,878 Vol.
18°C or below
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
1%
21°C
2%
22°C
11%
23°C
24%
24°C
51%
25°C
14%
26°C
2%
27°C
1%
28°C or higher
1%
24°C 51%
23°C 24%
25°C 14%
22°C 11%
$11,878 Vol.
$11,878 Vol.
18°C or below
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
1%
21°C
2%
22°C
11%
23°C
24%
24°C
51%
25°C
14%
26°C
2%
27°C
1%
28°C or higher
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 22, 2026, 1:56 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddmResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Resolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddmResolver
0x69c47De9D...European ensemble models and official forecasts from agencies like the DWD converge on a 23–24°C daily maximum in Munich for August 24, driven by post-frontal stabilization, modest daytime heating under partly cloudy skies, and prevailing westerly flow limiting further warming. These conditions align with historical late-August baselines for the region after recent frontal passages, producing the market’s strong implied probabilities for 24°C and 23°C. Fresh model runs and observational updates over the next 24 hours will determine any shifts in the peak temperature.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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