**Market-implied odds cluster tightly around 10–13°C (roughly 72% combined probability), reflecting model consensus on a calm, clear night favoring moderate radiational cooling.** Forecasts from sources using GFS and similar guidance show overnight lows near 11–12°C under mostly clear skies, light northeasterly winds (3–12 mph), and high pressure (~1020–1025 hPa). These conditions promote efficient surface heat loss after sunset without significant cloud cover or mixing to retain warmth. Historical August normals place typical lows around 12–13°C, so current guidance sits slightly below average due to the stable high-pressure setup and drier easterly flow. Differentiation among nearby outcomes hinges on small variations in cloud timing, wind speed, and dew-point depression: clearer skies and lighter winds push toward the 10–11°C range, while any increase in low-level moisture or cloudiness could hold the minimum near 12–13°C. Ensemble spreads and the latest model runs support this narrow band, with traders assigning the highest weight to 11°C as the most probable single value. New forecast updates or observational data from stations like Schiphol will be the key near-term drivers.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Amsterdam on August 24?
Lowest temperature in Amsterdam on August 24?
11°C 28%
12°C 26%
10°C 19%
9°C 12%
NEW
NEW
Aug 24, 2026
6°C or below
<1%
7°C
2%
8°C
1%
9°C
12%
10°C
19%
11°C
28%
12°C
20%
13°C
12%
14°C
7%
15°C
9%
16°C or higher
<1%
11°C 28%
12°C 26%
10°C 19%
9°C 12%
NEW
NEW
Aug 24, 2026
6°C or below
$95 Vol.
<1%
7°C
$70 Vol.
2%
8°C
$29 Vol.
1%
9°C
$6 Vol.
12%
10°C
$0 Vol.
19%
11°C
$0 Vol.
28%
12°C
$20 Vol.
20%
13°C
$0 Vol.
12%
14°C
$142 Vol.
7%
15°C
$24 Vol.
9%
16°C or higher
$146 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Market-implied odds cluster tightly around 10–13°C (roughly 72% combined probability), reflecting model consensus on a calm, clear night favoring moderate radiational cooling.**
Forecasts from sources using GFS and similar guidance show overnight lows near 11–12°C under mostly clear skies, light northeasterly winds (3–12 mph), and high pressure (~1020–1025 hPa). These conditions promote efficient surface heat loss after sunset without significant cloud cover or mixing to retain warmth. Historical August normals place typical lows around 12–13°C, so current guidance sits slightly below average due to the stable high-pressure setup and drier easterly flow.
Differentiation among nearby outcomes hinges on small variations in cloud timing, wind speed, and dew-point depression: clearer skies and lighter winds push toward the 10–11°C range, while any increase in low-level moisture or cloudiness could hold the minimum near 12–13°C. Ensemble spreads and the latest model runs support this narrow band, with traders assigning the highest weight to 11°C as the most probable single value. New forecast updates or observational data from stations like Schiphol will be the key near-term drivers.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 22, 2026, 2:30 AM ET
Volume
$532End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 2:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Market-implied odds cluster tightly around 10–13°C (roughly 72% combined probability), reflecting model consensus on a calm, clear night favoring moderate radiational cooling.**
Forecasts from sources using GFS and similar guidance show overnight lows near 11–12°C under mostly clear skies, light northeasterly winds (3–12 mph), and high pressure (~1020–1025 hPa). These conditions promote efficient surface heat loss after sunset without significant cloud cover or mixing to retain warmth. Historical August normals place typical lows around 12–13°C, so current guidance sits slightly below average due to the stable high-pressure setup and drier easterly flow.
Differentiation among nearby outcomes hinges on small variations in cloud timing, wind speed, and dew-point depression: clearer skies and lighter winds push toward the 10–11°C range, while any increase in low-level moisture or cloudiness could hold the minimum near 12–13°C. Ensemble spreads and the latest model runs support this narrow band, with traders assigning the highest weight to 11°C as the most probable single value. New forecast updates or observational data from stations like Schiphol will be the key near-term drivers.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$532End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 2:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Market-implied odds cluster tightly around 10–13°C (roughly 72% combined probability), reflecting model consensus on a calm, clear night favoring moderate radiational cooling.** Forecasts from sources using GFS and similar guidance show overnight lows near 11–12°C under mostly clear skies, light northeasterly winds (3–12 mph), and high pressure (~1020–1025 hPa). These conditions promote efficient surface heat loss after sunset without significant cloud cover or mixing to retain warmth. Historical August normals place typical lows around 12–13°C, so current guidance sits slightly below average due to the stable high-pressure setup and drier easterly flow. Differentiation among nearby outcomes hinges on small variations in cloud timing, wind speed, and dew-point depression: clearer skies and lighter winds push toward the 10–11°C range, while any increase in low-level moisture or cloudiness could hold the minimum near 12–13°C. Ensemble spreads and the latest model runs support this narrow band, with traders assigning the highest weight to 11°C as the most probable single value. New forecast updates or observational data from stations like Schiphol will be the key near-term drivers.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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