Official National Weather Service and NOAA model consensus points to an overnight low in the upper 70s to low 80s for Houston on August 23, driven by persistent high pressure, a warm air mass with dew points near 70°F, mostly clear skies, and light southerly winds that restrict radiational cooling. Historical August minima average near 77°F, but recent conditions have kept lows elevated in this range. The 95.5% market-implied probability on 78–79°F reflects trader alignment with these forecasts and urban heat retention effects. Clear skies and stable humidity support the tight clustering, though shifts in cloud timing, wind patterns, or late model runs could realistically push the actual minimum outside that narrow band before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Houston on August 23?
Lowest temperature in Houston on August 23?
78-79°F 96%
76-77°F 16%
71°F or below 9%
72-73°F 9%
$1,722 Vol.
$1,722 Vol.
Aug 23, 2026
71°F or below
9%
72-73°F
9%
74-75°F
5%
76-77°F
16%
78-79°F
96%
80-81°F
<1%
82-83°F
<1%
84-85°F
<1%
86-87°F
<1%
88-89°F
<1%
90°F or higher
<1%
78-79°F 96%
76-77°F 16%
71°F or below 9%
72-73°F 9%
$1,722 Vol.
$1,722 Vol.
Aug 23, 2026
71°F or below
$10 Vol.
9%
72-73°F
$20 Vol.
9%
74-75°F
$3 Vol.
5%
76-77°F
$3 Vol.
16%
78-79°F
$213 Vol.
96%
80-81°F
$249 Vol.
<1%
82-83°F
$100 Vol.
<1%
84-85°F
$100 Vol.
<1%
86-87°F
$143 Vol.
<1%
88-89°F
$638 Vol.
<1%
90°F or higher
$243 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official National Weather Service and NOAA model consensus points to an overnight low in the upper 70s to low 80s for Houston on August 23, driven by persistent high pressure, a warm air mass with dew points near 70°F, mostly clear skies, and light southerly winds that restrict radiational cooling. Historical August minima average near 77°F, but recent conditions have kept lows elevated in this range. The 95.5% market-implied probability on 78–79°F reflects trader alignment with these forecasts and urban heat retention effects. Clear skies and stable humidity support the tight clustering, though shifts in cloud timing, wind patterns, or late model runs could realistically push the actual minimum outside that narrow band before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 22, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$1,722End Date
Aug 23, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khouResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official National Weather Service and NOAA model consensus points to an overnight low in the upper 70s to low 80s for Houston on August 23, driven by persistent high pressure, a warm air mass with dew points near 70°F, mostly clear skies, and light southerly winds that restrict radiational cooling. Historical August minima average near 77°F, but recent conditions have kept lows elevated in this range. The 95.5% market-implied probability on 78–79°F reflects trader alignment with these forecasts and urban heat retention effects. Clear skies and stable humidity support the tight clustering, though shifts in cloud timing, wind patterns, or late model runs could realistically push the actual minimum outside that narrow band before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,722End Date
Aug 23, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khouResolver
0x69c47De9D...Official National Weather Service and NOAA model consensus points to an overnight low in the upper 70s to low 80s for Houston on August 23, driven by persistent high pressure, a warm air mass with dew points near 70°F, mostly clear skies, and light southerly winds that restrict radiational cooling. Historical August minima average near 77°F, but recent conditions have kept lows elevated in this range. The 95.5% market-implied probability on 78–79°F reflects trader alignment with these forecasts and urban heat retention effects. Clear skies and stable humidity support the tight clustering, though shifts in cloud timing, wind patterns, or late model runs could realistically push the actual minimum outside that narrow band before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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