**Forecast consensus points to a minimum temperature of 21–23°C in Istanbul on August 24, 2026, under sunny skies and light-to-moderate northeasterly flow.** This aligns with the closely matched market leaders at 23°C (31.5%), 21°C (27.5%), and 22°C (27.5%), reflecting ensemble agreement from regional models and the Turkish State Meteorological Service. Clear conditions overnight enable efficient radiative cooling, while the Sea of Marmara’s late-summer warmth (around 24–25°C) limits how far surface temperatures can drop. Moderate Etesian winds enhance mixing in the boundary layer, preventing extreme nocturnal lows typical of calmer nights. Historical August climatology shows average daily minima near 20–22°C, so current guidance sits slightly above the long-term baseline due to persistent high pressure and minimal cloud cover. Model spread remains modest, with most runs clustering in the 21–23°C range; any shift toward stronger onshore flow or increased humidity could nudge the minimum lower, while clearer, calmer conditions would favor the upper end of that band. Resolution will hinge on official observations at standard stations, where the daily minimum is recorded.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Istanbul on August 24?
Lowest temperature in Istanbul on August 24?
18°C or below 47%
21°C 37%
22°C 37%
23°C 37%
NEW
NEW
Aug 24, 2026
18°C or below
47%
19°C
8%
20°C
20%
21°C
28%
22°C
28%
23°C
32%
24°C
20%
25°C
8%
26°C
4%
27°C
1%
28°C or higher
1%
18°C or below 47%
21°C 37%
22°C 37%
23°C 37%
NEW
NEW
Aug 24, 2026
18°C or below
$21 Vol.
47%
19°C
$5 Vol.
8%
20°C
$0 Vol.
20%
21°C
$5 Vol.
28%
22°C
$5 Vol.
28%
23°C
$5 Vol.
32%
24°C
$0 Vol.
20%
25°C
$5 Vol.
8%
26°C
$5 Vol.
4%
27°C
$140 Vol.
1%
28°C or higher
$155 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast consensus points to a minimum temperature of 21–23°C in Istanbul on August 24, 2026, under sunny skies and light-to-moderate northeasterly flow.** This aligns with the closely matched market leaders at 23°C (31.5%), 21°C (27.5%), and 22°C (27.5%), reflecting ensemble agreement from regional models and the Turkish State Meteorological Service.
Clear conditions overnight enable efficient radiative cooling, while the Sea of Marmara’s late-summer warmth (around 24–25°C) limits how far surface temperatures can drop. Moderate Etesian winds enhance mixing in the boundary layer, preventing extreme nocturnal lows typical of calmer nights. Historical August climatology shows average daily minima near 20–22°C, so current guidance sits slightly above the long-term baseline due to persistent high pressure and minimal cloud cover.
Model spread remains modest, with most runs clustering in the 21–23°C range; any shift toward stronger onshore flow or increased humidity could nudge the minimum lower, while clearer, calmer conditions would favor the upper end of that band. Resolution will hinge on official observations at standard stations, where the daily minimum is recorded.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 22, 2026, 2:30 AM ET
Volume
$346End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 2:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast consensus points to a minimum temperature of 21–23°C in Istanbul on August 24, 2026, under sunny skies and light-to-moderate northeasterly flow.** This aligns with the closely matched market leaders at 23°C (31.5%), 21°C (27.5%), and 22°C (27.5%), reflecting ensemble agreement from regional models and the Turkish State Meteorological Service.
Clear conditions overnight enable efficient radiative cooling, while the Sea of Marmara’s late-summer warmth (around 24–25°C) limits how far surface temperatures can drop. Moderate Etesian winds enhance mixing in the boundary layer, preventing extreme nocturnal lows typical of calmer nights. Historical August climatology shows average daily minima near 20–22°C, so current guidance sits slightly above the long-term baseline due to persistent high pressure and minimal cloud cover.
Model spread remains modest, with most runs clustering in the 21–23°C range; any shift toward stronger onshore flow or increased humidity could nudge the minimum lower, while clearer, calmer conditions would favor the upper end of that band. Resolution will hinge on official observations at standard stations, where the daily minimum is recorded.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$346End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 2:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast consensus points to a minimum temperature of 21–23°C in Istanbul on August 24, 2026, under sunny skies and light-to-moderate northeasterly flow.** This aligns with the closely matched market leaders at 23°C (31.5%), 21°C (27.5%), and 22°C (27.5%), reflecting ensemble agreement from regional models and the Turkish State Meteorological Service. Clear conditions overnight enable efficient radiative cooling, while the Sea of Marmara’s late-summer warmth (around 24–25°C) limits how far surface temperatures can drop. Moderate Etesian winds enhance mixing in the boundary layer, preventing extreme nocturnal lows typical of calmer nights. Historical August climatology shows average daily minima near 20–22°C, so current guidance sits slightly above the long-term baseline due to persistent high pressure and minimal cloud cover. Model spread remains modest, with most runs clustering in the 21–23°C range; any shift toward stronger onshore flow or increased humidity could nudge the minimum lower, while clearer, calmer conditions would favor the upper end of that band. Resolution will hinge on official observations at standard stations, where the daily minimum is recorded.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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