Late August conditions in Istanbul typically feature moderate nocturnal cooling under the influence of the surrounding seas and urban heat island effects, with historical minimums averaging near 20–22°C. Trader sentiment clusters tightly around 22–24°C because current ensemble forecasts from major models show subtle differences in cloud cover, boundary-layer humidity, and low-level wind speeds that will determine how much radiative cooling occurs overnight on the 24th–25th. Clearer skies and lighter winds favor the lower end of that range by enhancing longwave heat loss, while increased moisture or a weak warm-air advection could hold temperatures near 24°C. The spread in market-implied probabilities reflects these small but decisive meteorological variables rather than any single dominant driver.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Istanbul on August 25?
Lowest temperature in Istanbul on August 25?
19°C 49%
27°C 49%
28°C or higher 49%
18°C or below 30%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
18°C or below
30%
19°C
49%
20°C
2%
21°C
27%
22°C
28%
23°C
28%
24°C
29%
25°C
27%
26°C
9%
27°C
49%
28°C or higher
49%
19°C 49%
27°C 49%
28°C or higher 49%
18°C or below 30%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
18°C or below
$100 Vol.
30%
19°C
$118 Vol.
49%
20°C
$88 Vol.
2%
21°C
$0 Vol.
27%
22°C
$0 Vol.
28%
23°C
$0 Vol.
28%
24°C
$0 Vol.
29%
25°C
$40 Vol.
27%
26°C
$107 Vol.
9%
27°C
$145 Vol.
49%
28°C or higher
$30 Vol.
49%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Late August conditions in Istanbul typically feature moderate nocturnal cooling under the influence of the surrounding seas and urban heat island effects, with historical minimums averaging near 20–22°C. Trader sentiment clusters tightly around 22–24°C because current ensemble forecasts from major models show subtle differences in cloud cover, boundary-layer humidity, and low-level wind speeds that will determine how much radiative cooling occurs overnight on the 24th–25th. Clearer skies and lighter winds favor the lower end of that range by enhancing longwave heat loss, while increased moisture or a weak warm-air advection could hold temperatures near 24°C. The spread in market-implied probabilities reflects these small but decisive meteorological variables rather than any single dominant driver.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 23, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$629End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Late August conditions in Istanbul typically feature moderate nocturnal cooling under the influence of the surrounding seas and urban heat island effects, with historical minimums averaging near 20–22°C. Trader sentiment clusters tightly around 22–24°C because current ensemble forecasts from major models show subtle differences in cloud cover, boundary-layer humidity, and low-level wind speeds that will determine how much radiative cooling occurs overnight on the 24th–25th. Clearer skies and lighter winds favor the lower end of that range by enhancing longwave heat loss, while increased moisture or a weak warm-air advection could hold temperatures near 24°C. The spread in market-implied probabilities reflects these small but decisive meteorological variables rather than any single dominant driver.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$629End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Late August conditions in Istanbul typically feature moderate nocturnal cooling under the influence of the surrounding seas and urban heat island effects, with historical minimums averaging near 20–22°C. Trader sentiment clusters tightly around 22–24°C because current ensemble forecasts from major models show subtle differences in cloud cover, boundary-layer humidity, and low-level wind speeds that will determine how much radiative cooling occurs overnight on the 24th–25th. Clearer skies and lighter winds favor the lower end of that range by enhancing longwave heat loss, while increased moisture or a weak warm-air advection could hold temperatures near 24°C. The spread in market-implied probabilities reflects these small but decisive meteorological variables rather than any single dominant driver.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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