Recent forecast models from the GFS and regional guidance indicate an overnight low in Madrid on August 24 likely between 17–20°C at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport observation site, aligning closely with the 1991–2020 climatological average of 18.7°C for the date. This consensus, driven by a cooling trend after recent warmer spells, clearer skies giving way to moderate southwesterly flow, and limited radiative cooling under partly cloudy conditions, positions the 18°C-or-below outcome as the market leader with 65% implied probability. Traders weigh the modest downside risk from stronger winds or increased cloud cover against the chance of slightly higher readings if high pressure strengthens, while noting that official minimum-temperature thresholds resolve the contract and that ensemble spreads introduce typical late-summer forecast uncertainty.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Madrid on August 24?
Lowest temperature in Madrid on August 24?
18°C or below 81%
19°C 32%
20°C 31%
21°C 6%
NEW
NEW
Aug 24, 2026
18°C or below
64%
19°C
26%
20°C
28%
21°C
6%
22°C
2%
23°C
1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C or higher
<1%
18°C or below 81%
19°C 32%
20°C 31%
21°C 6%
NEW
NEW
Aug 24, 2026
18°C or below
$16 Vol.
64%
19°C
$18 Vol.
26%
20°C
$55 Vol.
28%
21°C
$209 Vol.
6%
22°C
$104 Vol.
2%
23°C
$543 Vol.
1%
24°C
$245 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$1,050 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$215 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$245 Vol.
<1%
28°C or higher
$398 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast models from the GFS and regional guidance indicate an overnight low in Madrid on August 24 likely between 17–20°C at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport observation site, aligning closely with the 1991–2020 climatological average of 18.7°C for the date. This consensus, driven by a cooling trend after recent warmer spells, clearer skies giving way to moderate southwesterly flow, and limited radiative cooling under partly cloudy conditions, positions the 18°C-or-below outcome as the market leader with 65% implied probability. Traders weigh the modest downside risk from stronger winds or increased cloud cover against the chance of slightly higher readings if high pressure strengthens, while noting that official minimum-temperature thresholds resolve the contract and that ensemble spreads introduce typical late-summer forecast uncertainty.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 22, 2026, 2:30 AM ET
Volume
$3,099End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 2:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast models from the GFS and regional guidance indicate an overnight low in Madrid on August 24 likely between 17–20°C at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport observation site, aligning closely with the 1991–2020 climatological average of 18.7°C for the date. This consensus, driven by a cooling trend after recent warmer spells, clearer skies giving way to moderate southwesterly flow, and limited radiative cooling under partly cloudy conditions, positions the 18°C-or-below outcome as the market leader with 65% implied probability. Traders weigh the modest downside risk from stronger winds or increased cloud cover against the chance of slightly higher readings if high pressure strengthens, while noting that official minimum-temperature thresholds resolve the contract and that ensemble spreads introduce typical late-summer forecast uncertainty.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$3,099End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 2:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast models from the GFS and regional guidance indicate an overnight low in Madrid on August 24 likely between 17–20°C at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport observation site, aligning closely with the 1991–2020 climatological average of 18.7°C for the date. This consensus, driven by a cooling trend after recent warmer spells, clearer skies giving way to moderate southwesterly flow, and limited radiative cooling under partly cloudy conditions, positions the 18°C-or-below outcome as the market leader with 65% implied probability. Traders weigh the modest downside risk from stronger winds or increased cloud cover against the chance of slightly higher readings if high pressure strengthens, while noting that official minimum-temperature thresholds resolve the contract and that ensemble spreads introduce typical late-summer forecast uncertainty.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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