Current ensemble guidance from GFS and ECMWF models converges on a minimum temperature of 14–16 °C in Paris on August 24, 2026, with 14 °C carrying the highest market-implied probability. Persistent northeasterly flow is advecting cooler maritime air, while increasing low-level cloud cover and a stable high-pressure regime limit nocturnal radiative cooling that would otherwise produce lower readings. Historical climatology places the long-term average low near 13.9 °C, yet recent model runs show sensitivity to exact cloud timing and any residual frontal moisture, keeping the distribution tightly clustered around 13–15 °C. Updated overnight guidance and observational trends will refine these distinctions ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Paris on August 24?
Lowest temperature in Paris on August 24?
14°C 44%
15°C 30%
13°C 17%
16°C 10%
NEW
NEW
Aug 24, 2026
11°C or below
2%
12°C
6%
13°C
17%
14°C
44%
15°C
30%
16°C
10%
17°C
1%
18°C
1%
19°C
2%
20°C
2%
21°C or higher
<1%
14°C 44%
15°C 30%
13°C 17%
16°C 10%
NEW
NEW
Aug 24, 2026
11°C or below
$15 Vol.
2%
12°C
$26 Vol.
6%
13°C
$366 Vol.
17%
14°C
$1,653 Vol.
44%
15°C
$286 Vol.
30%
16°C
$37 Vol.
10%
17°C
$15 Vol.
1%
18°C
$15 Vol.
1%
19°C
$5 Vol.
2%
20°C
$5 Vol.
2%
21°C or higher
$123 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current ensemble guidance from GFS and ECMWF models converges on a minimum temperature of 14–16 °C in Paris on August 24, 2026, with 14 °C carrying the highest market-implied probability. Persistent northeasterly flow is advecting cooler maritime air, while increasing low-level cloud cover and a stable high-pressure regime limit nocturnal radiative cooling that would otherwise produce lower readings. Historical climatology places the long-term average low near 13.9 °C, yet recent model runs show sensitivity to exact cloud timing and any residual frontal moisture, keeping the distribution tightly clustered around 13–15 °C. Updated overnight guidance and observational trends will refine these distinctions ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 22, 2026, 2:29 AM ET
Volume
$2,546End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 2:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpbResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current ensemble guidance from GFS and ECMWF models converges on a minimum temperature of 14–16 °C in Paris on August 24, 2026, with 14 °C carrying the highest market-implied probability. Persistent northeasterly flow is advecting cooler maritime air, while increasing low-level cloud cover and a stable high-pressure regime limit nocturnal radiative cooling that would otherwise produce lower readings. Historical climatology places the long-term average low near 13.9 °C, yet recent model runs show sensitivity to exact cloud timing and any residual frontal moisture, keeping the distribution tightly clustered around 13–15 °C. Updated overnight guidance and observational trends will refine these distinctions ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,546End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 2:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpbResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current ensemble guidance from GFS and ECMWF models converges on a minimum temperature of 14–16 °C in Paris on August 24, 2026, with 14 °C carrying the highest market-implied probability. Persistent northeasterly flow is advecting cooler maritime air, while increasing low-level cloud cover and a stable high-pressure regime limit nocturnal radiative cooling that would otherwise produce lower readings. Historical climatology places the long-term average low near 13.9 °C, yet recent model runs show sensitivity to exact cloud timing and any residual frontal moisture, keeping the distribution tightly clustered around 13–15 °C. Updated overnight guidance and observational trends will refine these distinctions ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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