Recent model consensus from ECMWF and Météo-France indicates overnight radiative cooling under partly clear skies will produce a minimum near 15–17 °C on August 25, consistent with the post-heatwave air mass now influencing northern France. Seasonal late-August climatology supports this range, with average Paris lows of 14–16 °C and limited potential for deeper cooling absent strong high pressure or calm winds. Trader-implied odds cluster on these values because current ensemble runs show modest variability tied to cloud cover and boundary-layer moisture, while colder or warmer extremes remain lower-probability outliers pending the final 24-hour forecast updates.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Paris on August 25?
Lowest temperature in Paris on August 25?
16°C 40%
17°C 30%
15°C 19%
14°C 6%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
12°C or below
3%
13°C
4%
14°C
6%
15°C
19%
16°C
40%
17°C
30%
18°C
6%
19°C
6%
20°C
4%
21°C
4%
22°C or higher
<1%
16°C 40%
17°C 30%
15°C 19%
14°C 6%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
12°C or below
$5 Vol.
3%
13°C
$32 Vol.
4%
14°C
$7 Vol.
6%
15°C
$16 Vol.
19%
16°C
$98 Vol.
40%
17°C
$11 Vol.
30%
18°C
$22 Vol.
6%
19°C
$2 Vol.
6%
20°C
$12 Vol.
4%
21°C
$79 Vol.
4%
22°C or higher
$7 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from ECMWF and Météo-France indicates overnight radiative cooling under partly clear skies will produce a minimum near 15–17 °C on August 25, consistent with the post-heatwave air mass now influencing northern France. Seasonal late-August climatology supports this range, with average Paris lows of 14–16 °C and limited potential for deeper cooling absent strong high pressure or calm winds. Trader-implied odds cluster on these values because current ensemble runs show modest variability tied to cloud cover and boundary-layer moisture, while colder or warmer extremes remain lower-probability outliers pending the final 24-hour forecast updates.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 23, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$291End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpbResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from ECMWF and Météo-France indicates overnight radiative cooling under partly clear skies will produce a minimum near 15–17 °C on August 25, consistent with the post-heatwave air mass now influencing northern France. Seasonal late-August climatology supports this range, with average Paris lows of 14–16 °C and limited potential for deeper cooling absent strong high pressure or calm winds. Trader-implied odds cluster on these values because current ensemble runs show modest variability tied to cloud cover and boundary-layer moisture, while colder or warmer extremes remain lower-probability outliers pending the final 24-hour forecast updates.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$291End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpbResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent model consensus from ECMWF and Météo-France indicates overnight radiative cooling under partly clear skies will produce a minimum near 15–17 °C on August 25, consistent with the post-heatwave air mass now influencing northern France. Seasonal late-August climatology supports this range, with average Paris lows of 14–16 °C and limited potential for deeper cooling absent strong high pressure or calm winds. Trader-implied odds cluster on these values because current ensemble runs show modest variability tied to cloud cover and boundary-layer moisture, while colder or warmer extremes remain lower-probability outliers pending the final 24-hour forecast updates.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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